[yakto]

Interestingly, Google should still be counting those who click through to a NYTimes article, hit the paywall, and bounce. So the 40% drop is the result of 1) users not clicking NYTimes links anymore, or 2) fewer NYTimes links being presented to users, perhaps due to a drop in SERPs.

I'm a datapoint of only one, but #1 above certainly applies in my case. I find myself much less likely to click through, especially on my mobile device, because I'm annoyed when I find myself above the monthly free limit. After hitting the limit a couple of months, I just stop clicking thru in the first place.

[rhizome]

That has always been the biggest question for me: how many don't? There are bounces from content, and there are bounces from commercial barriers: paywalls, subscription modals, "give us your email please" modals (really, blocking modals of all kinds), "install our android app (or continue to site)"...I doubt any site is passing out their failure rates for these business decisions.