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by rsj_hn 1830 days ago
> The thirst for USD around the world is increasing and all the so called printing by the FED is not getting to the other countries and international companies fast enough.

This is because all the Fed does is create reserves that it uses to purchase Treasuries on the open market. But when we talk of foreigners demanding USD, what they really demand are treasuries, thus more "printing" (it is electronic, reserves are just numbers in a database) actually reduces the supply of assets that foreigners want to hold. Of course the scale is not really relevant to make a big difference in either direction.

What would increase the supply of treasuries is more debt issuance. There is an insatiable thirst to hold risk free debt in stable jurisdictions where property rights are respected. That is why the U.S. can run enormous deficits every year and the yields on those deficits are negative in real terms. None of this has anything to do with the supply of Federal reserve liabilities, which are reserves, but with the supply of Treasury liabilities, both actual liabilities and the off-balance sheet stuff like mortgages which are federally insured and thus also risk-free. We live in a world where the globalization of capital means that the moment anyone has some money to save, they want to store it on account in some US Bank or as a US corporate bond or equity, as they don't trust their own local banks and their own local corporations. Thus the U.S. is the world's bank, and that's why there is a global demand for dollar-denominated assets independent of whatever the Federal reserve does to increase or decrease the supply of reserves within the US banking system. Adjusting those reserves with open market operations does absolutely nothing to supply more dollars to anyone in El Salvador (or in Kansas).

But the problem for El Salvador is not the technology of monetary systems, it is that El Salvador has an underground economy that prevents it from collecting taxes or having a working credit system. If all your dealings are under the table, you have nothing to show a loan officer. If you don't want to store your savings in a bank but want to instantly withdraw them and store them in a foreign bank or under your mattress, then you are not going to be able to get much in bank loans in your own currency. None of that will be solved or even improved with bitcoin. Proving once again that bitcoin is a solution in search of problem, even in the arena of El Salvador's monetary woes.

1 comments

> But the problem for El Salvador is not the technology of monetary systems

I do believe that the monetary system IS the problem since El Salvador is dollarized and is subject to a foreign central bank antics while having no say in the matter. Having their own would be marginally better perhaps but IMO bitcoin is a much better solution.

The only reason nations get dollarized is because they do not trust the fiat currencies issued by their own government because the government chooses to extract more from seignorage than the benefits of having the currency or the government is not otherwise trusted to not seize bank accounts. Thus they choose to opt out of their local government-run system. That is an effect rather than a cause. Once that happens, a whole host of other problems occur, from breakdown in credit systems and payment systems to underground economies and loss of tax income. Bitcoin solves none of these problems, which are the core problems. Rather, trying to use bitcoins rather than seashells, gold doubloons, or foreign dollars is just an expression of the population's lack of trust in their own government and switching from one of these alt-currencies to another doesn't help the government at all. What would help the government is enforcing rule of law, establishing trust in financial institutions, providing value for amounts taxed so that there is popular support for taxation and trust that the money is well spent, and establishing faith in the government's currency. That is what would help El Salvador, not hoping that the US government makes it easier for foreign nationals to acquire dollar denominated debt.