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by Nursie
1836 days ago
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No, it's a 2/3 chance at that point. When you choose initially, you have a 1/3 probability of getting the right one, leaving a 2/3 probability that the car is on one of the other two. The host reveals one of the other two. So that 2/3 probability applies to the remaining door. Here is a short C implementation that made it very clear to me... #include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
int doround () {
int car = rand() % 3;
int firstchoice = rand() % 3;
// host reveals one of the goat doors
if (car == firstchoice) {
// you changing to the other door after the reveal is a loss
return 0;
}
if(car != firstchoice) {
// you changing to the other door after the reveal is a win
return 1;
}
}
int main(int argc, char** argv) {
int wins=0;
for (int round=0; round < 1000; round++){
wins+=doround();
}
printf("Worked in %d of %d rounds\n", wins, rounds);
}
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