[jobu]

There was a piece about this on NPR (I think earlier this week, but I can't find it right now).

It sounded like they're making some assumptions because the mRNA vaccine causes most people to produce a higher level of antibodies for a longer period of time vs the real virus. However, antibodies are not the only part of immune system, so it's possible that other parts of the immune system may still be effective.

The real answer is we don't know that yet conclusively, but we do know the vaccine is effective, so until we have a better understanding it's a good idea to be vaccinated regardless (especially if you have any risk factors).