[heisenbit]

> As the chance to catch Covid decreases over time, the risks associated with vaccines become more of a problem.

This is a big assumption. It could also be that it becomes part of the virus background infections we all deal with except that it is high risk if you get it the first time.

When looking that the risk of an non vaccinated individual catching Covid today keep in mind that a lot of people have been vaccinated and the incidence numbers de-facto refer to incidences of the non vaccinated part of the population which would justify a smaller denominator than used (whole population).