[deertick1]

How does kelly criterion apply to sizing portfolio positions? From what I understand trying to use it in the stock market is a fools errand.

[epapsiou]

Options Implied probabilities gives a way to understand what market is pricing volatility at. Given the option price, it is not hard to get the probability distribution. There is not judgement here. Just plain Math. Here is some explanation - https://engine.oracled.com/FatKelly