More generally, if one views probability as separate from the utility of the outcome it's attached to, one is bound to make bad decisions.
Real decision problems contain a lot of nonlinearities if decomposed the wrong way. The only way to decompose it is as a linear combination of probability and utility (because the utility swallows the nonlinearities). But for each component both probability and utility matters in determining the overall value of the decision.
Real decision problems contain a lot of nonlinearities if decomposed the wrong way. The only way to decompose it is as a linear combination of probability and utility (because the utility swallows the nonlinearities). But for each component both probability and utility matters in determining the overall value of the decision.