[gcuth]

For folks who want to try the kind of forecasting being discussed here, Metaculus is a pretty great community: https://www.metaculus.com/

Their FAQ has a great explanation of how they 'score' user forecasts --- including a summary of Brier scores for binary yes/no questions, and the log score used for both binary and continuous questions: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#howscore

[ergodiclife]

This looks really interesting - thanks!