[elahieh]

Yes, there are strong parallels between Polya's video and the "Cryptodiagnosis" chapter. The chapter is based on a monograph called "Ars Conjectandi" ("the art of conjecturing") and Polya's video theme is "first guess, then prove".

"In all of one's endeavors, the successful cryptanalyst's precept should be kept foremost in mind: "Try the simplest thing first." It is surprising how often this admonishment is disregarded, to the later chagrin of the cryptosinner." -- Callimahos

[gjm11]

It might be worth mentioning that the title "Ars Conjectandi" is taken (clearly deliberately) from a much earlier (1713) work of the same title by Jacob Bernoulli, about combinatorics and probability. That title may well be a nod to an even earlier (1662) work called "Logica, sive Ars Cogitandi" -- Logic, or the Art of Thinking -- which was published anonymously and also includes some discussion of probability; probably substantial parts were written by none other than Blaise Pascal.