[throwaway4good]

Long haul flights are still subdued due to COVID which means we can play these games at modest cost. However longer term, I think things will normalize wrt airspace including in Belarus.

That Russia can make 400 m in fees means the fuel cost and cost of longer flights going around Russia is worth more.

[cameldrv]

Yes but perhaps it doesn't matter as much as you'd think to the European airlines. Presumably Russia is charging what the market will bear in overflight fees. If flying over Russia is an option, airlines that choose to go around pay fuel/operational costs for the extra two hours of flying time, but they also must charge less for tickets, because their competitors that overfly Russia get there two hours sooner.

If EU airlines categorically can't overfly Russia, their only economic loss is the extra flying time, not the reduced ticket prices from taking longer, since their competitors are on the same playing field.

The winners in this would presumably be Turkish and the Gulf airlines.