[mantas]

The only overturning would be Russia either installing a puppet or annexing Belarus altogether.

If EU intervenes, Russia will too. And there's much more popular support for Russia than for EU. Belarus people know their economy is a museum of Soviet era remains bankrolled by Russia. Heading West would mean total economic collapse to rebuild the system. They're little North Korea in many more ways than mass media talks about.

The sad reality is EU/West can't win here.