[User23]

Can anyone with subject matter expertise please explain whether or not this will have any practical effect on the Belarussian regime?

[MomoXenosaga]

So long as the military and intelligence agencies don't switch sides nothing will change.

Revolutions aren't won by the people they are won by soldiers.

[nomoreplease]

> Revolutions aren't won by the people they are won by soldiers.

While I might agree with you in these post-modern times, this is not accurate to all of history.

[DamnYuppie]

To all of human history it is not, but it is the overwhelming majority of cases.

[rurban]

The other theory are mass strikes, as seen very recently. A regime won't survive ongoing mass strikes.

[6foot4_82iq]

Lukashenko profits by playing the EU off against Russia.

Banning/sanctioning Belarus naturally drives the country further towards Russia. The EU attempts to offset this by simultaneously dangling a €3B carrot: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_...

[skissane]

I think this is bad for Lukashenko. The more the EU sanctions Belarus, the more Belarus has to rely on Russia. But the more Belarus has to rely on Russia, the greater Russia's power over Belarus, and the greater the likelihood that Belarus turns into a Russian puppet state in which all the real power and real decisions are being made in Moscow. That outcome threatens to deprive Lukashenko of real power and turn him into a mere figurehead.

[petre]

He already relies on Russian roubles to keep his repression apparatus running. Fortunately Kremlin's money only cover their paychecks for a few months. When they stop flowing, the Belarussian nomenclature will try to find other means of financing thieir lifestyles. The possible outcomes are either are the Crimean or the Ukraine scenario.

[michelb]

Which in turn moved Russia's border closer to other EU states. Next stop: Ukraine?