[ad8e]

Here's a link from Sept 2020 about how this was expected long in advance: https://mobiledevmemo.com/what-will-googles-deprecation-of-g... The key word here is "consensus". He's reporting that others held this expectation, not just himself. This step by Google does not yet go as far as predicted; there is a big difference between a modal opt-in/opt-out and an opt-out in settings.

Here's a link speculating on the impact of Apple's IDFA deprecation on Facebook, from January: https://mobiledevmemo.com/facebook-may-take-revenue-hit-from... It carries strong parallels to what is in-process at Google.

A few ad experts I follow say that Facebook and Google will claim increasing dominance in the ad space. Their logic is that as each ad vendor loses third party information, comparative advantage will favor companies with strong first party information. This will drive more ads toward Facebook as a relative share, even if they are still losing overall. I have no information to judge to what extent this claim holds.