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by oilbagz 1852 days ago
More like a tit-for-tat show of support for Belarus on the part of the Russians.

I saw a televised meeting between Putin and Lukashenko yesterday that ended with Lukashenko making the statement that went something like "the Bolsheviks rose to great heights, and we will match them", to which Putin chuckled, demurely. Its maybe not obvious to Westerners, but they are trying to rebuild a "Union of ex-Soviet States" in the region these days .. one by one, preparing a Bloc that can be an attractive partner to the EU, I suppose.

With these kinds of tit-for-tat responses, though, I guess its a shrewd strategy. "If we are allowed into the EU econo-bloc, such re-routes won't be necessary", seems to be the planned negotiating point ..

3 comments

First of all, I do not see any indication that Russia or Belarus tries to get closer to the EU, rather the opposite. And this kind of blocking policy increases the separation. Also, it takes really a lot to have the EU make any decision within short notice, but Lukashenko definitely managed.
> Also, it takes really a lot to have the EU make any decision within short notice, but Lukashenko definitely managed.

This is a cogent observation.

>First of all, I do not see any indication that Russia or Belarus tries to get closer to the EU, rather the opposite.

Putin has stated multiple times that he intends to have better relations with the EU, and that the Commonwealth of Independent States needs to work towards that goal, so .. I'm guessing you're not paying attention to that, since it doesn't serve the narrative that Russia just wants to 'go it alone against the world'.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/putin-sa...

No, it wouldn't be good for the USA, but it would be great for Europeans and Russians to see this happen some day.

Russia would be a perfectly fine partner with the EU, and it seems to be orienting towards that goal in a future date - American agitprop notwithstanding.

If Putin wants to have better relations with the EU, he is very welcome. He just should stop with certain things which are kind of incompatible with that. Like odering murders on EU territory, and keep his fingers out of the Ukraine. Oh, yes, if he has any influence with Lukashenko, he might tell him about not threatening European airplanes.
All well and good, but the EU (and especially now the UK) is in no position to be dictating moral platitudes from some position of authority, that is for sure - especially on the issue of the repression of journalists, extrajudicial murder/assassinations launched from EU/UK territory, and so on.

It takes a certain kind of disingenuous authoritarianism to claim that Russia is committing heinous acts which preclude its participation in the world order, when the majority of the world order is just fine with crimes against humanity, war crimes, and extrajudicial assassinations being performed for the criminal purposes of the "Coalition of the Willing".

> "Union of ex-Soviet States" Like: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

Isn't that great? We're not going to allow non-democratic countries like Russia into the EU. Certainly not when they are so clearly documenting that they have zero credibility, no treaty Russia signs can be trusted. So it's probably fine that they make own club.

I mean what else would we expect them to do?

Convert to democratic states, or self-disassemble, or both.
That would be nice.
They only have control on flights in and out of Russia though so how much leverage can it really provide? All the EU airlines can just say sure we will fly over Belarus on the way to Moscow while still avoiding it on every other city pair that doesn't involve a Russian destination. That is why I say it seems largely symbolic.
Why would any European airline fly over Belarus while the incident isn't resolved? No airline should fly over states which intercepts civil airliners in transit.
I suppose it depends on your view of what the problem is and what the purpose of the fly over moratorium is.

Practically I view the fly over ban as protecting passengers and property from being unduly seized by Belarus.

Since Belarus and Russia have close ties flying a plane into Russia at all seems about the same risk as flying that plane over and into Belarus.

Yes, Russia, like any other state, could intercept airplanes too. But so far, they have not. International air travel means, that you have to fly across many countries, if you want to fly in a somewhat straight line. There are a few exceptions, where flights are not permitted to cross a countries airspace, but intercepting approved flights is pretty much unheard of. That is why the actions from Lukashenko created so much outrage. It is one of the fundamental agreements of international flights that got violated. If Russia would start intercepting airplanes, they would be internationally isolated quite quickly.
My understanding is that you can intercept a plane in transit in your airspace. The problem is that Belarus lied when they said they had information of a bomb onboard.
Another problem is the kidnapping of a passenger who then got promptly very sick and damaged in the friendly heavy hands of the KGB and police. You know, the usual thing the totalitarians do.
Eh, how is Assange doing? People are being treated well in Guantanamo? Didn't Austria divert a flight on merely the suspicion that Snowden might be onboard? Or does that not count because it was just the President of Bolivia's official government jet and not a Ryanair flight?

Fair enough if you want to criticize Russia for being a kleptocracy that assassinates enemies on foreign soil, but diversion of flights to capture enemies of the state and then not treating them well in captivity is unfortunately not a hallmark of totalitarian regimes but a general feature of western statecraft as well, so let's not blow this tit-for-tat response out of proportion.

Listen, two wrongs don’t make one right, ever heard of such notion?