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by whatshisface 1843 days ago
The specific sequence of rolls has 5 doubles (which can only occur one way) and 4 unequal pairs (which can occur two ways). Each double has a 1/36 chance of happening while the unequal pairs have a 1/18 chance. So that's 1/36^5 * 1/18^4 = 1/6,347,497,291,776 or about 1.5 times ten to the minus thirteen.

It's interesting that the last four digits of the denominator of the probability of the shortest game of Monopoly are 1776. I'm sure that has some kind of cosmic significance.

2 comments

And don’t forget that Player 2 most also pick an “advance to Boardwalk” card out of a shuffled deck.
And the Player 1 has to get “Bank error in your favor, Collect $200" in their first turn, otherwise they will lack $50 to buy 5 houses in turn 2 (which I assume is significant in raising rent for Boardwalk to $1400)
According to the law of cosmic improbabilities, it just has to happen in that Case.

To quote Terry Pratchett:

> Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.

Nice, thanks