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by omrjml 1855 days ago
From the actual journal article: "Three further points are relevant to the question of whether the model-observed differences in Figs. 10A-C are mainly due to underestimated observed tropospheric temperature trends or to an overestimated satellite WV trend. First, independent estimates of tropospheric temperature change from GPS radio occultation (RO) and radiosondes suggest that over the 2002 to 2018 period of overlap between MSU/AMSU and GPS-RO, tropospheric warming is smaller in microwave sounders than in GPS-RO or radiosondes (Steiner et al. 2020). Second, there is some evidence that observational uncertainties may be smaller in satellite WV data than in satellite tropospheric temperature data (Wentz 2013; see Section 2c). Third, when the individual trend components of our four trend ratios are examined, the agreement between models and observations is better for WV and SST trends than for TMT or TLT trends. These three lines of evidence, taken together with the results of the RSS sensitivity tests, suggest that underestimated observed tropospheric warming is plausible. This inference is predicated on the assumption that the model-based covariance constraints are realistic."