[machinebun]

> My rationale is simply that more dollars to go around means that one dollar is worth less. Simple logic, rather than fancy economics, I guess.

You're looking at the total supply (which is true in the long term, since those dollars have to be spent eventually). However, inflation in the short term has much more to do with velocity and actual spending - if all of that money just sits in bank accounts, there will be no inflation.

So looking at the money supply in isolation will tell you nothing about the actual inflation. It's about what's happening to that money.