[iso1631]

Letting all the schoolkids and leafy surrey familes off on their ski holidays to Italy in Feb half term (15th-23rd) was probably one early bad decision, how much different that would have made in the mid term, but closing borders was never on the cards for any country - closing heathrow was unthinkable even in mid March.

New Zealand borders closed on 19 March 2020. Based on deaths and IFR at that time, there were likely 150,000 new cases a day in the UK on 19th March. Closing borders then wasn't going to stop the spread.

Maybe a strict lockdown after the Feb half term and a total closure of all borders - including lorry drivers, could have worked.

Would it be worth it? The age-standardised mortality rate for the UK in 2020 was 1,043.50 per 100k, the highest since....

2008, when it was 1,091.90 per 100k. That wasn't an anomoly either - every year from 1990 to 2008 was higher. Even ignoring ages, the crude mortality rate per 100k was higher for every year before 2003.