This should be relatively easy to verify, we have millions of people who have been infected early last year so we can see how many of them got reinfected recently with one of the more recent strains.
If the immune response of the virus is close enough to what a vaccine gives and the mutation rate remains relatively constant, the number of reinfections would probably be a good indication of how much would we need subsequent shots, at least for a yearly renewal cycle.
Seconding the request for a source. The papers I've found say that SARS-1 survivors have antibodies that react to SARS-CoV-2 but don't neutralize the virus, and thus may not provide immunity.
So far the mRNA vaccines have shown strong effectiveness against the variants, but the others like AZ and the Chinese/Russian vaccines much less so. It's also worth noting that natural immunity is a somewhat random process (more random than the antibodies produced with vaccines) and not everyone develops the same level of protection.
> Next, we showed that patients (n = 23) who recovered from SARS (the disease associated with SARS-CoV infection) possess long-lasting memory T cells that are reactive to the N protein of SARS-CoV 17 years after the outbreak of SARS in 2003; these T cells displayed robust cross-reactivity to the N protein of SARS-CoV-2.
Thank you, seems to support OP's statement. Given that COVID antibody tests also show cross-reactivity with SARS it seems likely to me he is in fact correct.
I did not know that, honestly quite surprised!
One thing to keep in consideration is that there is a very big evolutionary pressure for covid to get a mutation that bypasses the vaccine antibodies and still infect others, given that there are so many active infections still out there.
I now have good hope though!
To be fair humans are almost identical to chimpanzees biologically in many ways.
As long as the spike proteins tertiary structure has not changed to much from SARS to COVID, op could be correct. Emphasis on could.
If the immune response of the virus is close enough to what a vaccine gives and the mutation rate remains relatively constant, the number of reinfections would probably be a good indication of how much would we need subsequent shots, at least for a yearly renewal cycle.
I wonder, are there any such studies?