I have a conspiracy theory that there are far more rich people than we are lead to believe, also that most of us are just working to prop them up and keep them rich.
I have a conspiracy theory that Forbes created the rich list
Which intentionally does not have despots oligarchs or royals to skew the conversation to a business matter which can get lost in the left/right divide
OP's conspiracy theory is absolutely true. There is a whole thread of academic research estimating the right tail of the wealth distribution (spoiler: the Fed household finances microdata is garbage).
Diff the Bloomberg and Forbes rich lists... they're not the same list. One oligarch on those lists had their estimated net worth double after the Appleby leaks turned up some trusts. I'm pretty sure Bloomberg just calls people up and asks them how much they have.
I guess it depends on where peoples wealth comes from. It’s probably far easier to estimate Zuckerberg and Bezos when you know it’s tied to a publicly traded company than if it’s all private. I have a good friend who is a billionaire that laughs at these lists knowing they know nothing about his money (not a public company), where it comes from, and where it lives.
The Forbes rich list has some criteria such as from their own revenue or share prices. Basically private market generated wealth. There are exceptions and the line gets blurred really quickly, but thats their stated goal.
Pretty simple with public companies. With private companies and current market it really does get messy. I'm thinking about Valve and how much higher it would be priced on public market compared to private... And that can't be only case. So the private market is quite dark place...
Yes, and most people aren't actually trying to be on the rich list. When I was in Monaco people were saying leave the bragging to the Americans. There is no transparency in the markets, thats also a distinctly American half-goal.
> there are far more rich people than we are lead to believe
This is almost certainly true — apart from oligarchs, dictators, and crypto billionaires, it's broadly understood that "500 richest" lists also miss a fair number of anonymous Omaha residents, for example.
> most of us are just working to prop them up and keep them rich
I think this part is probably a mischaracterization (though I could also just be misinterpreting what it means). To take the limit case, consider a wealthy dictator who stole absolutely everything he owns, and who flees his ruined country. In this scenario, the aggrieved parties are the people he stole his wealth from, as opposed to, e.g., the waitress who ends up serving him drinks on a Caribbean island.
That means to the extent you believe the "prop them up" part of the theory, you must also believe that most wealth concentrations arise more from things like theft, and less from things like value creation. My experience has been that this seems untrue today and almost certainly becomes more untrue every year (but I do understand that reasonable observers may disagree).
That contrast of value creation against theft is a false dichotomy. Reframing the latter as "value capture" or "wealth extraction" and treating it separately from value creation gives way to a far more robust analysis.
I agree terms like "value capture" or "wealth extraction" would probably be more descriptive. But note that I only mentioned "things like theft" in the gp, so I think we're really talking about the same sorts of activities.
Theft is only the most extreme and one sided example of what I mean by "capture" or "extraction." The best example (and most common) is salaried employment - many people produce far more value than they are able to capture in the form of a salary because they don't have enough leverage. Value is decoupled from currency even though we far too often use the latter to measure the former (IMO, I'm not an economist).
> the aggrieved parties are the people he stole his wealth from, as opposed to, e.g., the waitress who ends up serving him drinks on a Caribbean island.
I understand your logic here, but I think in these scenarios we are all losing - if the dictator's money is the only game in town you have to play his game and by his rules.
When the efforts of the waitress, and all the other effort and resources directed to fulfilling the dictators whims, it creates a network of economic activities around a single person's will.
If that money was being spent by the population he stole it from, the choices of the spenders will be more diverse, reflecting the desires of a that whole population, this creates a more complex network of economic activity and it also means that people supplying that demand have greater choice in how they participate.
it reminds me of the ant article from the other day.
>That means to the extent you believe the "prop them up" part of the theory, you must also believe that most wealth concentrations arise more from things like theft, and less from things like value creation. My experience has been that this seems untrue today and almost certainly becomes more untrue every year (but I do understand that reasonable observers may disagree).
It is pretty well demonstrated and accepted that both IQ and talent (in anything, business, sports, art, whatever) have a Gaussian (normal) distribution, but wealth does not. It has a Pareto (power) distribution.
So there is something more than just offering value (ie. the results of talent or IQ or even work) that contributes to the accumulation of wealth.
Some of this has to do with the "Snowball Effect" where it is easier to make more money at a faster rate, the more money you have.
But even that doesn't really get to the heart of the issue.
There is another surprising effect at play!
In a non-sophisticated version (ie. the version everyone is taught in the beginning economics classes) of economics, there is an assumption that someone pays money that they believe is equal to value of some thing that they want. And if this is true, no wealth actually changes hands. You paid $X for something that is worth $X to you ... and maybe others and the person that sold it to you got $X of value which is what they thought it was worth selling it at. The seller is richer by $X but you are richer by something worth $X, so it is really a wash.
But we have to pretend in this case that both sides know the worth of the item in question. And this is almost never the case!
If we allow for whoever "misjudges" the value to be the "loser" and the other to be the "winner" in the exchange as measured by one or the other getting a little more value out of the deal than the other, then something magical happens.
If you play out this scenario (and you can model it yourself in your favorite software) with many "agents" doing these deals, and if you give every single transaction a completely blind and fair chance of 50/50 of being the winner and loser in the transaction, and you do this many, many times ... one agent will always end up with ALL the money in the end!
And this is without theft (as the gp comment insinuated) and is also without there necessarily being any "real value" created (as you suggested).
There is very interesting and recent research in this area[1].
BTW, I used to think more like you than the GP comment (and I still don't really agree with the GP comment) but if you take the time to look into the research and understand the math behind what is going on, it is a real eye-opener and a different perspective on why wealth inequality seems to show up in basically every type of economy and society given enough time.
> The seller is richer by $X but you are richer by something worth $X, so it is really a wash.
It’s NOT a wash though - 2X is a bigger absolute number than the sum of the two pre-trade inputs. Or put another way, if I trade some of my giant stack of hotdogs for some of your giant stack of hot dog buns, we are BOTH better off and value has increased.
No, it is a wash, and so is your scenario. It is not a 2X gain. They both had an X and swapped it with each other.
In you scenario, I am poorer of hotdog buns and you are poorer of hotdogs, but I am richer of hotdogs and you are richer of hotdog buns.
You insinuate, but don't state, that maybe the completed hotdogs are worth more than either of the parts individually (ie. if I had one bun and one dog they would be worth less (together but separated) than if I put the dog into the bun), and maybe that could be true, but it isn't necessary.
> maybe the completed hotdogs are worth more than either of the parts individually
Yes, this was obviously the entire point. You can assume that this is true in any case where people voluntarily agree to trade anything: For each party to the trade, what they receive is worth more to them than what they gave in exchange. If it were merely a wash no one would bother trading. Either party could be wrong about the expected gain in any particular instance—economic calculation is not an exact science—but on the whole across many trades each individual can reasonably expect a net positive value from the trade; i.e. market exchange is not zero-sum. And since both parties benefit, there is a net economic benefit from the trade as a whole.
The point of economics and trade is to create value by allocating goods to their most-valued use. The goods themselves remain the same but the value increases with each trade. It is not correct to look at an exchange of good A for good B and conclude that goods A and B must be of exactly equal value from all perspectives, and that therefore no value has been created in the process. Good-A-with-new-owner has more economic value than Good-A-with-previous-owner, and the same is true for good B.
Going back to the original example, if I'm selling hot dogs for cash then what I want is cash (or something else I can buy with it). I have no use for hot dogs, as such. If for whatever reason I were unable to sell them they would just go to waste. By selling a hot dog I gain some cash and lose one hot dog, which (unsold) is worth much less than the asking price. I might even have to pay to dispose of any extras when they expire. The buyer likewise valued the hot dog more than the cash at the time of purchase or they wouldn't have made the trade. After all, one can't eat money.
>Yes, this was obviously the entire point. You can assume that this is true in any case where people voluntarily agree to trade anything: For each party to the trade, what they receive is worth more to them than what they gave in exchange.
I do not necessarily agree with your comment, but it is irrelevant to my main point.
Even if it were always 100% true that both parties somehow gained value (that could be equated to money), if the differences between those two gained amounts unequal, then the agent-model works just the same ... at some point one (or a few) agents will still end up with all the money!
That's factually incorrect. It's easy to make a list of rich people specifically saying tax the rich more.
Leaving that aside, the 1% pay 38.5% of taxes, which seems quite fair as is. We already tax the rich quite heavily.
I'd rather the focus be on compliance. Close the loopholes and catch the tax evaders.
Wealth taxes, if you look at examples elsewhere both present and historically, are hard to do well. I worry the government is not sufficiently competent ( now or in the future) to implement it correctly and it does more harm than good. It's very easy to drive capital offshore and take the potential investment and job creation with it.
I think we're missing the forest for the trees by focusing on exactly what the tax rates are and how much is "fair".
Money at the top levels is not at all like money for the rest of us. For a middle class citizen, money is about consumption and freedom to do what you want (with enough of it).
At the top end of the distribution, money is no longer about consumption or freedom (since you can never realistically consume as much as they have, and you don't have to work after you've saved like $10M). Money at that level is a proxy for power - a group of oligarchs can basically have the power of a shadow government, but unelected. And the real question to ask is "how much power/leverage do we want an individual (or a group of rich oligarchs) to have in a democracy."
So taxing the rich is not even about spreading the wealth, necessarily - if you redistributed it directly you might get inflation by redirecting investment money into consumption. It's more about limiting the amount of power that a person can accumulate over others.
> It's more about limiting the amount of power that a person can accumulate over others.
Does this not beg the question why not just limit power itself rather than limiting wealth with the target side effect that the wealthy will not easily purchase power as a result?
Why is almost the entire species seemingly addicted to the idea that the power itself is not the problem? You can erect regulations on the corrosive influence of money in politics until the cows come home but as long as the ROI on lobbying is positive, it's a given that's going to be the result.
On the other hand when there's no power to buy nobody buys it by definition. Adjust above extreme observation appropriately in order to justify the minimal possible tolerable conglomeration of power availability in any given system to find whatever tolerable level the reader ends up comfortable with. Or viewed uncharitably, arrive at the conclusion that's exactly what's already happened and the human affliction of slavish devotion to power is near universal and continuously growing and there's no way to escape it short of completely opting out of modern global civilization given the observed distribution of the population constantly seeking to increase it.
One rationale for limited government is that there is a direct, positive correlation between the power ceded to government and the incentive to control/steer that power. By limiting the power of government you reduce the incentive to usurp or corrupt that power.
An extreme example of this would be a dictatorial regime where control of the government becomes a life-or-death concern for warring groups.
I agree, that's what I'm getting at. But instead contrast that idea with the more broadly accepted one that it's wealth that's the problem not power even though the former seems like a much more accurate description than the latter.
Maybe it's just a bug in humanity; control the world with this one weird trick.
I think actually this a valid concern. A billion dollars is a ridiculous level of wealth that no person should need.
But if you implement higher taxes at the to end, past what point do those people just leave, or leave on paper. There is an inflection point where the tax would actually do more harm than good. And nobody knows where it is. I'd like to see us get closer to it though, there is room to raise taxes on the very wealthy.
A bigger problem at that level is loopholes and compliance though.
The tax code is lopsided in favor of the rich, it's not about paying a fair share, it's about the burden of the taxes. The burden of taxes on the non-rich is significantly greater than it is on the rich.
If I make $400K and I only need $75K to live, the burden of my taxes is negligible.
If however I make $80K and I need $75K to live, taxes are an unimaginable burden.
We fix the problem by evening out the burden, forget about loopholes, eliminate all but 2 deductions, dependents and primary residence, that's it.
Because the deductions have been eliminated lower the tax rate for each bracket to the effective tax paid for each bracket, the IRS has this data.
Then end capital gains tax, all income is taxed as earned income.
These changes will give 99+% of the population a tax break, and it will simplify taxes drastically for everyone.
The final step is to add 2 new brackets,
>$5M with a tax of 45%
>$10M with a tax of 69%
The rich won't need to be making decision about if and when to eat, but the burden of taxes will get leveled out.
We'll also have enough money to pay for Universal Healthcare, and probably college tuition for everyone.
Go lookup the charts for income inequality for the U.S. When the GOP tax cuts from Reagan's first term took effect the income inequality gap started in earnest.
> Then end capital gains tax, all income is taxed as earned income.
Wealthy people can keep their money growing inside a corporation essentially forever. It never becomes “income”; instead they just borrow against the assets at exceedingly low rates of interest as well as classifying personal consumption items (like a private jet) as a corporate expense.
It’s possible to keep doing this until death, or even longer.
A surprising number of things wrong with the world today started in the Reagan/Thatcher/etc era.
I agree with the general sentiment of your post (though I disagree that capital and labour should be taxed the same way). I'll also add the following: implement an LVT. It is the most economically “efficient” tax there is, and morally perfect at the same time. Then with the money you collect through LVT you can lower income tax.
You do realize that the percentage of all taxes paid by the top 1% has only increased, not decreased over time?
If you include transfer like EITC, the US tax code is highly progressive and the tax burden on low income earners has only gotten less (e.g. Trump’s doubling of the standard deduction).
I would argue your plan to “fix” the tax code is already flawed if the basis of your changes is wrong.
we should look at the big picture not just the percentages that those people are taxed at the end. Because in many cases the leading question is: How come they earn so much more than every one else? Is it through sheer talent and grit or is there something else going on? Inheritance, structures that benefit those with capital over those who labor, connections with the right people etc. etc. And after analyzing all that coming back to the question whether someone should earn 10.000 as much as another person who works the same hours? Should someone earn billions in a year and then use it for moon shots like going to mars? Is that what the society needs or can afford right now? Maybe. But for as long as there are people who work 40 hours a week and cannot afford a healthy life (e.g. having no trouble coming up with emergency money, dont have to commute 2h just to get to their minimum wage job etc.), there certainly is a structural problem going on. This structural problem can only be solved if - and that's the most important point - wealth is shared more equally. Meaning taxation (and all the structures that lead to income) has to take more from those who earn more and give to those who cannot give more. Well, that's if we want to live in a social society, if not forget what I said.
I think any wealth (not income!) over something like 1M should be confiscated. :) There's no reason to have that much money and there's no way you personally have generated that wealth, most likely you just invested money early enough in something sucessful to extort money from it. This may sound provocating but it's actually quite a sound model, but which would also mean reconstructing what we mean by the economy... No capitalistic ownership (eg investment is at most a loan, you don't get propriety shares in exchange), no for-profit renting, ...
And obviously funnelling all that money and economic capital to some central state isn't gonna go well so levels below and above the state need to be reinforced.
This is a terrible idea put forward by people with no grasp of either economics or history.
First off you can't buy a home in some parts with that kind of money. But that aside, you'd stifle most incentive to innovate, provide jobs, and live in your country. Anyone who thought they might pass your 1M limit will just leave to a country that doesn't do that. No offense, but I've never been interested in living in the US and you'd have to pay me quite a lot to accept a green card. I certainly wouldn't take it if offered freely, because it comes with a major tax liability. There are nicer places in the world by a variety of metrics.
So if you chase away everyone with wealth you'll be left paying 100% of the taxes instead of 60% and with no jobs to pay them with. Good luck with that!
Look to Soviet Russia, Cuba, Venezuela for examples of how that plays out.
Rich != Wealthy. "Rich" tends to refer to people who are generating lots of cash, oftentimes through labor (like doctors or lawyers or athletes). "Wealthy" tends to refer to people who own lots of assets and generate cash through asset appreciation/sales and real property.
Wealthy people will push for income taxes while trying to eliminate capital gains and inheritance taxes.
This conversation came up years ago when Bill Gates Sr tried to push for income taxes in Washington state and critics pointed out that it would not affect wealthy people.
yes, this is why people calling states with no income tax as a "regressive" tax structure seems like a psyop.
Income tax taxes people who work for a living. Property + capital gains tax both tax assets appreciation and rent seekers (unless the investment is a high risk venture into a startup or something ambitious).
States without income taxes usually rely on sales or excise taxes. In a “high tax” state like New York, poor people don’t pay income tax nor sales tax on food or clothing. (A significant expense) Usually high tax pressure is from property tax.
In a state like South Carolina, you have income tax, but property taxes are very low. They make up for that by taxing food, which results in higher taxation for poor and elderly people.
I didn't downvote, but the comment did confuse me as it's an oddly specific complaint.
If indeed there are lots of very wealthy people who are calling for higher income taxes on high earners (and I personally didn't think that was something so common as to be a stereotype) then that's hardly the worst thing they're doing.
It comes across as someone who really doesn't like taxes, probably because they've listened to too much propaganda generated by very wealthy people who have a vested interest in taxes being seen as a universally bad thing.
Bill is calling for higher capital gains and inheritance taxes, so not income taxes anyway.
The ‘Millionaires for Humanity’ don’t specify what taxes they’d like to see raised, but they emphasize they want it on themselves.
And from the third article:
> Several members, including Molly Munger, the daughter of Charlie Munger, the longtime vice-chairman of Warren Buffett’s firm, Berkshire Hathaway, have spoken in favor of a wealth tax.
At least two of the articles specifically mention increasing non-income taxes to tax wealth specifically. It seems likely the third one does too, since it's specifically about inherited wealth, but I didn't see a specific reference either way at a glance.
Why does the middle class clamor to raise taxes on the rich, which won't appreciably benefit themselves, when they could instead push to lower taxes on themselves, which will benefit themselves?
Maybe different in Europe, but in the USA tax increases do not find their way back to benefits for the public.
I mean unless by "public" you mean the next country we want to "liberate" and bring "democracy" to...
I'll copy my answer from above since I think it's an important point and relates to your question:
"Money at the top levels is not at all like money for the rest of us. For a middle class citizen, money is about consumption and freedom to do what you want (with enough of it).
At the top end of the distribution, money is no longer about consumption or freedom (since you can never realistically consume as much as they have, and you don't have to work after you've saved like $10M). Money at that level is a proxy for power - a group of oligarchs can basically have the power of a shadow government, but unelected. And the real question to ask is "how much power/leverage do we want an individual (or a group of rich oligarchs) to have in a democracy."
So taxing the rich is not even about spreading the wealth, necessarily - if you redistributed it directly you might get inflation by redirecting investment money into consumption. It's more about limiting the amount of power that a person can accumulate over others."
If you take away rich people's money, other kinds of "insiders" will still pull the levers to enrich themselves and benefit their cronies at the expense of the public well-being.
The regulatory state, even if democratic, is fundamentally self-disregulating (as opposed to self-regulating).
Anecdotal... my peers (upper middle-class in the US) generally realize the taxes they pay fund all the stuff we rely upon to stay upper middle-class. Good public schools, roads, etc. We just want the rich to pay their fair share too.
Or, if you're a jaded cynic, the rich are mostly just greedy sociopaths. They want to minimize their own tax burden and give zero fucks about the betterment of society. They got theirs, screw everybody else.
When I lived in the US, the vast majority of my taxes went to the federal government and didn't come back in local benefits like schools and roads.
(Sure, federal money comes back to universities in the form of research grants which pay for foreign PhD students to work in bullshit paper mills. I've seen that firsthand. The wastage of federal money is near 100%.)
Separately, I've known lots of rich people. Of course, they are just like other people. They are not all greedy sociopaths. Grow up.
~$60 billion/year of federal funds goes to transportation.
~$1,000 billion/year goes to health care.
~100 billion/year goes to education.
The money we pay in federal taxes (whether it be income or other taxes) doesn't just vanish into the ether, it comes back via various government programs.
Yet our transportation infrastructure is decaying; our healthcare is among the worst in the world--the governments pays AND we pay out of pocket AND it still sucks; and our education sucks.
~$60 billion/year of federal funds goes to transportation.
~$1,000 billion/year goes to health care.
~100 billion/year goes to education.
Regardless of any specific programs I did or didn't list above, the money we pay in federal taxes doesn't just vanish into the ether, it comes back via various government programs.
True, it is does not vanish. However, the stewardship is out of the hands of the labor that begot it. There’s a reason We have the military industrial complex, cushy public-sector union jobs, and DC/East Virginia as one of the wealthiest regions of the country. It isn’t because these people are sweating blood and tears trying to find good opportunities where they can carefully deploy the taxes taken out of the tip jar.
> Roads and schools is always a cop out because that’s typically funded through property taxes
A significant share of road and school funding comes from the federal government, which doesn’t levy property taxes. Another significant chunk usually comes from the State, which in many states does not rely on property taxes.
100% true. bill hwang is a recent example he was on paper >$20 billion. though levered to the gills and it blew up. But there are a lot more examples that aren't big headlines.
I've lived in Fort Lauderdale which is sometimes called the world's yachting capitol. After seeing my first boat show I was actually kind of shocked by the number of people in the "own a large yacht" wealth bracket.
Not sure about the first sentence, but how is "most of us are just working to prop them up and keep them rich" a conspiracy theory? Isn't that the whole basis of capitalism? I am asking honestly. The social order being a mostly immutable pyramid has always been the natural model of how things work in my mind.
I think it's only exacerbated by government intervention (corruption) and regulatory capture.
I do agree that human nature tends to winners and losers, but right now the losers are being bashed over the head by a tool they think is helping them.
I mean fundamentally, accumulating capital would be pretty pointless if not for legions of poor(er) people willing to do whatever the owner of the capital wants them to.
One of the standard anti-capitalist arguments for redistributing wealth is that the super-wealthy do not, in fact, use their wealth to have others at their beck and call to an extent even remotely proportional to how much better off they are. The usual framing is that less wealthy people spend far more of their money on goods and services, therefore we're better off if they have the money instead of the super-wealthy, but of course it's the same thing really.
At the same time, the natural flow of capital is upward. Without government intervention you end up back at feudalism as a very small percentage of the population controls effectively all of the wealth. The way to combat this is progressive taxation and government spending on social programs and infrastructure.
In Australia they appear to be voting in favour of continued bashing.
I think there's some kind of analogy to the Dunning-Kruger effect where people are deluded that they are in fact in the group of people that will be advantaged by lowering corporate tax rates, for example.
It's not really a conspiracy. You just need to know the right people intimately.
I live in a country with a thoroughly dysfunctional banking system which, by most accounts, fall right in the middle of the global income bracket.
Yet I know a ton of people in the upper-middle and lower-upper class and they all have the following characteristics of their wealth, which _do not_ appear in most wealth statistics:
* One or multiple bank accounts in offshore tax havens, with the US being the most important
* Multiple properties, whose real ownership is hidden by being assigned to family members, friends, and relatives
* A lot of overseas trips to buy things that are normally horribly expensive due to to import restrictions.
* A deep, thorough understanding not only of tax law, but also personal connections with people who work in tax agencies to understand when to avoid (legally), when to evade (knowing the tax agency won't pursue evasions under a certain currency amount) and when to get into convenient tax amnesty regimes.
Again, these aren't phenomenally rich people and they're easily hiding away 50-85% of their net wealth. By most metrics these people's income would, in theory, put them in median American lifestyle. Yet it's obvious that their standard of living _easily_ puts them in the top 2-5% of a developed country, with the addition that labor costs are so cheap that they can afford services even pretty wealthy people in other places cannot.
This is a classic in Latin America, and I have no reasons to believe it's any different elsewhere; the instruments are just different.
I just don’t buy the wealth distribution that they are showing us. I don’t think the government even knows the true wealth distribution. I think it’s also partly political, they can’t go, “hey! Look how many people have 100 million!”
Sure. You know those police officers and courts of law and militaries you pay for? Those are the guys whose job it is to keep you from grabbing things from rich people.
Which intentionally does not have despots oligarchs or royals to skew the conversation to a business matter which can get lost in the left/right divide