[halfmatthalfcat]

I’m not going to source hunt for you when the information you seek is so readily available across the internet and any opinion to the contrary is simply an attempt at maintaining ones own ignorant bias on the facts.

By the sound of your resistance to my original comment though, no amount of sources will prove to you that the measures taken saved lives.

[bleah1000]

I said in my comment that I think that it might be that lock downs worked in certain situations, but not all. From your comment, it sounds like there is no amount of evidence that will convince you that lock downs are more nuanced than the statement that they are 100% effective in all cases.

Remember, they weren't really full lock downs, they were these partial kind of lock downs. Even in the US, some places did curfews, some did not. At the very least, you have to admit that there have been some measures under the lock down umbrella that were not as effective as others. If you can't even examine your faith in your statement, you are right that there is no point in discussing this subject further.

[halfmatthalfcat]

Lockdowns are only effective if they are much closer to "all or nothing" than "regions can pick and choose".

That's the entire reason why the Tri-State area worked together to create and follow each other's lockdown policies.

If you have a piecemeal approach, people will flee the lockdown and bring the virus to wherever they go to continue the cycle. The lockdown (and masks) only work if you have high levels of coordination and compliance. That's why having a national policy is much more effective than a regional or state-level policy. That's also why China was much more effective (from the outside, if you believe anything about their numbers) than the West was.

[raarts]

I have my doubts as well. Looking at the graphs from a distance, they seem to be dominated much more by seasonality than by lockdowns etc.

Also, Sweden, Florida.

Strict lockdowns may make a difference, but given the fact that 40% of the population just can not work from home, they're never really strict.

For me the 'undeniable' part of your statement was far too strong.

[halfmatthalfcat]

The graphs are only as good as the data they are made from and there has been widespread manipulation (both political and just due to inept data collection) of the data. Just look at Florida firing one of their data scientists due to whistleblowing about bad numbers[1].

Also anecdotally, having lived in NYC through COVID, can confidently state that without the city going on lockdown (and it was by all means a strict lockdown), hundreds of thousands would have died.

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/florida-data-scientist-...