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by PKop 1851 days ago
What gold is good for is a neutral settlement asset between nations with imbalanced trade. But not at a fixed currency price by weight, rather floating in fiat price, which forces nations to re-balance to more consumption or more production depending on if they have large trade surpluses or large trade deficits. Thus the pitfalls of either extreme can be re-balanced by covering trade imbalances with gold reserves which also devalue currencies and force domestic production, or increase them and force consumption.

Keynes's Bancor[1] was essentially this idea, but Bretton Woods conference rejected this proposal. Oil exporting and general surplus nations, like Russia and China, have been moving in this direction by reserving more gold in recent years (look up various European nation increasing gold purchases since 2008) likely to move towards a more multilateral system of settling trade imbalances with a neutral settlement asset, rather than stockpiling fiat currency or fiat currency debt "assets" created in unrestricted supply by one nation, who forces world to then use this inflating currency to purchase energy... which equals future inflation for these nations that can't print it themselves.

It is also useful as a personal "store of value" to avoid "saving" in a depreciating fiat currency, along with other "hard" assets.

But gold or hard money cannot be the unit of account or medium of exchange for national commerce. Credit/fiat is better for this.

This is why some have argued that there's always been and probably always will be a need for "two monies". Bimetallism was an embodiment of this principle. Here is a very thorough discussion of this concept[0]. Ctrl+F "two monies" for specifics, but the whole article is insightful.

This dynamic also presents itself in debates about crypto currencies purpose to function as a high throughput transaction currency or a more inert store of value. Because of the inefficiencies of blockchain and Bitcoin's finite quantity, it cannot function as a unit of account or high volume transactions currency; fiat and fiat derivative platforms (Cash App, Paypal, credit cards, etc) are much better at serving this function. Trying to shoe-horn hard money into soft money use cases (or vice versa, saving in fiat) doesn't work. One form of "money" can't satisfy these two distinct functions.

[0] http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-to-honest-money.htm...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor

2 comments

This is a very astute point and it's how I've always thought about Bitcoin and other crypto assets. I never understood why people have to debate whether it will take over currencies like the USD or EUR, which it will probably never do. Crypto assets can have utily for trading among enemies or situations where normal fiat currency cannot be used. Think about places with dysfunctional institutions, escaping inflation in places like Venezuela or fleeing war. And then there's the programability aspect which is a totally novel use case which I'm not going to go into.
> Crypto assets can have utily for trading among enemies or situations where normal fiat currency cannot be used.

Maybe crypto will get there eventually, like tech crashed in 2000-2001 (AMZN down 90%) and things have 'stabilized' now, but it's been over ten years already since Satoshi published and this is where we are:

> So. Bitcoin fell 53% in five weeks, and then it rallied 35% in four hours. Two observations for now: 1) Nobody in their [right] mind would enter into a transaction denominated in bitcoin; 2) It's too early to say the bubble's burst (or to say this is a new bull market).

* https://twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1395067576334655489

When your currency (?) is more volatile than the goods/services you're using to it buy, I'm not sure how useful of a 'currency' it is. Or a store of value, or a unit of account.

Is Bitcoin or other crypto more or less volatile than the price of a barrel of oil or frozen concentrated orange juice futures?

This feels like how Cuba had their own two currency market with the CUP and CUC.