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by argvargc 1856 days ago
Bitcoin averaged 300% returns YoY the past decade (most other crypto followed to a degree, or did similar or better - with some doing worse).

Anyone looking for a trading strategy, automated or not, needs to consistently beat such numbers to do anything other than lose money versus just buying and holding.

Given prior (lack of) success in every other market this kind of thing has been attempted, makes this a hugely tall-order. The most successful quant firms all average well under 100% returns, even with years of experience, armies of experts, and loads of investment in assets and infrastructure.

Buying and holding crypto already outdoes them (massively). Why take on greater risk and spend time to try and get yet more out of such a market?

1 comments

If you are confident that these returns will continue, I’d happily loan you a couple of million at 50% interest rate, so you can buy even more crypto. (Of course, I’ll take your crypto as collateral).
I'll do you a deal:

Put 5% of that 2 million into a spread of the top 10 crypto by market cap.

After a few years, and despite some of those coins going to zero, you'll likely have done way better than just the 50% you'd have got from me.

If you don't though and it all goes to zero, you only lost 5%, as opposed to the entire 2 million to a random person you met on the internet.

You're welcome.

Yeah, HODLing is underappreciated. I once tried mining, a long time ago. Dumped $5k in mining equipement and, at the time, barely broke even. Had I bought and held, instead of wasting countless hours on the project, I would've been way better off.

Then again, I did have the somewhat limited foresight to keep ~33% of what I've mined in crypto form so not a total loss ;)

Same here. Former miner. Wish I bought coins instead. It worked out ok in the end though because I learned pretty quick. :)
Time in the market always beats timing the market.
I like that!