[actuator]

The situation is quite sad, and I am happy you and your family are fine as you mentioned in your other comment. I am quite sure you can do without spreading FUD here though.

If you have data to back up the 10-100x claim, please share it.

There has been undercounting in most countries and India having largely poor infra you would expect it to be higher there. The data has been analysed by a lot of experts and most are putting the real count between 2-3x. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1390536686635978752?s=...

[avemuri]

Here's one state's 10x. https://thewire.in/health/not-covid-stunned-by-data-gujarat-...

>> I am quite sure you can do without spreading FUD here though.

With due respect, our entire country is experiencing fear, uncertainty and certainly despair. Giving voice to it is not unreasonable.

[ganeshkrishnan]

The 10x count is comparing death certificates with official counts; you are right.

And a significant portion of the families especially low income families don't even get death certificates. There were people that died and their fatality will never be recorded anywhere anytime.

[actuator]

> With due respect, our entire country is experiencing fear, uncertainty and certainly despair. Giving voice to it is not unreasonable.

I totally respect and understand that. It is just that hyperbolic figures just lead to flame wars and I would rather not have it here. That's why I asked them to back it up with statistical analysis they are relying on.

Do you have any other source other than the blog you linked? I remember from Wikipedia source discussions, that the site is not a good source for news reporting, so I am going to skip opening their article.

[avemuri]

The source quoted in the article is a local language newspaper, the wire is not the original source. Others have carried it as well. eg. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/61k-covid-deaths-n...

Other reports from cremations in multiple cities have been approximately similar. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1384782984138694658?...

You're right that it isn't 10x everywhere. India as a whole is probably 3-5x, but the point that it is 10-100x in the very worst areas is also true. Some places in UP and Bihar are reporting no COVID deaths at all. People are dying of 'cough and fever'

Finally, at a pan India level, while the government refuses to count deaths accurately, it has done sero-surveys. Those have consistently shown antibodies in 25-60% of the population (before this new wave) with the higher figures reported from poorer denser areas.

As of now, even after the new wave, official figures say about 2% of our population has been infected.

[statguy]

Did you even read the article? The article reports work done by an unrelated journalist who compared the death certificates issued during the same periods in 2020 and 2021 to estimate the number of excess deaths, which was 15x the number of covid-19 deaths reported by the government during the period.

[statguy]

There is a lot of evidence that the death toll in India is an order of magnitude higher:

From this very article: "He said officially 196 people had died from the virus in Kanpur between 16 April and 5 May, but the data from seven crematoriums showed nearly 8,000 cremations."

Here is another analysis from Gujarat: https://mobile.twitter.com/deepakpatel_91/status/13930705967...

The study that you have linked to above has primarily focused on western countries, where the process of reporting and recording of deaths is much better than in India.

[actuator]

I think their analysis is also using the total pronounced deaths to Covid deaths and studying the delta from previous years, the same as the tweet you linked.

The figures seem higher in the tweet, I am guessing we will have more clarity on this once the situation settles down a bit and more data can be aggregated.

[ganeshkrishnan]

>If you have data to back up the 10-100x claim, please share it.

15x more death certificates issued.

10x lower death per million wrt comparable countries

Much more rural deaths in second wave which were totally not counted.

The "daily bhaskar" did an investigative report in couple of districts and said it was 20-40x.

I am not trying to fear monger. Just obey the lockdown, use the mask and get the vaccines. And when things return to normal focus on development instead of egoistical statues and temples.

[ganeshkrishnan]

The global death toll is 2-3x than listed not for India.

[actuator]

Can you please read that graph again and tell me where you didn't have clarity?

~600k/~200k is ~ 3x.

Those are the numbers mentioned for the country in discussion here.