I agree but it's worth noting that Beeple was selling JPGs for $5000+ in the mid 2010s as a commissioned artist in the music industry. So the NFTs have also brought some transparency to a successful digital artist along with the crazy valuations.
This seems like a dangerous bet to make... my take on the NFT "market" is that it's money laundering, wash trading (inflating prices to attract suckers to the market) and perhaps in a small part conspicuous consumption. Mostly fraudulent... but would you bet against a fraud?
I would take a broader bet that is not tied to Beeple (i.e. that NFTs of significant artists will have long-term value in a similar manner as a painting).
Is this because you don't have interest in it, or do you have a true justification of this?
I'm willing to take this bet. Just like art, 99% can be bought for $1 at a garage sale, but there will be the 1% that has value to someone.
You are betting against the generation who spends massive amounts on video games costumes, and puts more value into their online image (instagram) than real life image, not finding value in a form of digital scarcity & status. I find that hard to believe.
So the condition of your bet would be that all NFTs everywhere have zero long term value? So something like, by 2030, no non-fungible token will have a monetary value?
I'm not interested in taking the counter party in this bet, but if you were to take a bet in the form "The highest sale price of a NFT in calendar year 20X0 will be no more Y0% of the highest sale price of a postage stamp in that same year.", what would you fill in for X & Y?