Dropping X% in 24h sounds bad, but without putting it in the context of the asset's historical volatility, sharpe ratio, overall portfolio construction, etc; it looks like a very superficial reading (perhaps just good enough for a headline)
It probably just means that it's not actually liquid at the values that btc people are crowing about. The real question is how much trade volume it took to drop it 30%.
Being at $60K just means that a handful of suckers bought for $60K.
It's not something I'd care to speculate over. There's a public ledger, we can find out exactly how many people bought it at every price. I don't have the inclination, but it's something that's precisely knowable.
No, you can’t. Given a transaction on the btc blockchain, how would you determine if actually changed hands (as opposed to internal/self-transfer), and if so, at what valuation?
Trades on sidechains or on centralized exchanges also don’t register.
> we can find out exactly how many people bought it at every price.
None of them afaik will tell you how many people. Trade data tends to be anonymous and only give you price, amount, and side for each trade. There’s no way to differentiate between 2 people trading back and forth 1 million times vs 2 million people trading once each.
You can always construct an arbitrary timeline where the charts are green in order to support that argument. The issue with the huge drop is the insane volatility, there are a lot of people who are freaking out because they bought at 40k+.
https://twitter.com/shortthebanks/status/1133735039596994560
https://twitter.com/Joe_wants_BTC/status/1316044080690929666
Dropping X% in 24h sounds bad, but without putting it in the context of the asset's historical volatility, sharpe ratio, overall portfolio construction, etc; it looks like a very superficial reading (perhaps just good enough for a headline)