Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by seanhunter 1867 days ago
If you wanted to operate a fully legitimate tethered cryptocurrency, you have to do two things. Firstly you have to make public the basket of holdings backing the currency and secondly you have to bake in an arbitrage mechachanism to ensure the price of the basket and the price of teh currency don't drift too much.

The way this works for the most obvious analogous product I can think of in the financial markets (index ETFs like SPY https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/funds/spdr-sp-... for instance) is known as the ETF creation and redemption mechanism. For any given ETF there is a pool of participating brokers who are entitled to create or redeem units in the etf with the ETF administrator. So if the price of the ETF gets too high relative to the assets then these brokers can buy the assets in the market and hand them in to the ETF admin who will add those assets to the ETF and give them in return the new units that are created as a result. This has the effect of raising the prices of the constituents and reducing the price of the ETF units (when the broker then sells those new units), bringing the prices back into equilibrium.

Conversely if the ETF units are too cheap, the broker can buy the units in the market and redeem them for the correct proportion of underlying assets (ie exactly the reverse process) bringing the price into balance the opposite way.

It's incredibly important for this mechanism (and the public record of assets in the basket it relies on) to be built in to the process if the price is to be truly tethered. Otherwise the tether is just an illusion and in the ETF world, ETFs which didn't have this type of mechanism went completely haywire and became defunct.

3 comments

Like Diem?

"In September 2019, Facebook announced that the reserve basket would be made up of: 50% United States dollar, 18% Euro, 14% Japanese yen, 11% Pound sterling and 7% Singapore dollar." [0]

Diem has, at this stage, halted tethering like this. They have since retreated physically (to the US) and ideologically (backing 100% by USD instead of a basket).

It is my understanding that they intended to operate Diem as you mentioned in your second point.

The primary issue with doing this is that, if its successful, and you have indeed created a more stable currency system (which is the intention of tethering/stablecoins in the first place), you will eventually be the mass currency, which will kill demand for nation state currencies (at least the ones not in the basket) outside of taxes.

This is why the Diem plan was shot down by global (banking) regulators, and also why stablecoins/tethering have never really operated outside of the digital realm (and to be frank, have merely serviced the pump and dump that is crypto today).

I 100% agree that the public record of these currencies has to be very clear and built into the process. Tether has repeatedly been misleading (weren't they originally 1:1 USD:Tether?) and even still, with these reports its hard to tell how the money is truly organized.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diem_(digital_currency)#Curren...

> It's incredibly important for this mechanism (and the public record of assets in the basket it relies on) to be built in to the process if the price is to be truly tethered. Otherwise the tether is just an illusion and in the ETF world, ETFs which didn't have this type of mechanism went completely haywire and became defunct.

This is what's so surprising to me. Markets are efficient and rational, right? (;-))

Well, we just learned a great deal. And no matter how you optimistic or pessimistically you value the ~95% of assets backing USDT that aren't cash, we should all agree on one thing: you won't value them 1:1 to the dollar. So why hasn't the peg moved?

The only explanations I can think of: this risk was priced in, which seems a stretch... or that USDT:USD has never been priced based on fundamentals.

...or that USDT:USD has never been priced based on fundamentals.

It's simple and easy to do this when one entity has control of both the currency minting and the market pricing mechanism.

In other words, USDT would be an ideal mechanism for perpetrating widespread fraud in the crypto marketplace, one that would likely never be tolerated in "regulated" markets.

Note that USDT is underpinning the entire crypto marketplace --- the majority of bitcoin and other crypto trades involve USDT.

> or that USDT:USD has never been priced based on fundamentals.

Ding Ding Ding! We have a winner!

The arb without transparency can work as well, as long as you keep enough collateral. At some point the peg becomes a self perpetuating prophecy. Carefully executed, it can last forever.

It could be what Tether does: they lost banking access early on and since then all new USDT seem to "appear" rather than being given to people wiring them dollars on the clear banking system, presumably from arb bots trading crypto vs USDT on the big exchanges to maintain the peg.

As long as they don't lose what the bots bought and the value of that basket is above cost basis (or fully hedged) it's unsinkable.