Pretty sure if you’d allowed or even encouraged unmitigated spread of the virus, you’d also get the same or similar recession, though perhaps slightly later.
Of course. If going out and working and consuming is dangerous, many people will not do it, even if there is no lockdown. More people will just be extremely careful. And there is some direct cost to the sickeness and death.
This was published well over a year ago.
https://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-...