[wahern]

> Planes fly in more or less straight lines from source to destination, and adding a new route is just some paperwork and renting the terminal space. No multi-billion dollar investment to connect a new nearby or distant city.

One of the justifications for California HSR was that existing airport slots are almost saturated. Studies showed that airport expansion was going to cost at least as much as HSR. Runway and terminal expansions actually do cost billions of dollars.

And while HSR costs have ballooned, so too would airport expansion costs. Perhaps even more so because much of the HSR cost increases are related to intransigent farm owners in rural areas, whereas the majority of airport capacity expansion work (at least on a cost basis) involves much more developed areas, where NIMBYs tend to be at least as ornery.

The studies also projected greater cost burdens with highway expansion alternatives. Nobody disputes that building additional lanes on I-5 in the Central Valley is cheaper than building HSR in those areas. But that's beside the point because the dilemma isn't about increasing throughway capacity in the Central Valley, but expanding capacity into and out of the SF and LA metro regions, where highway expansions are insanely expensive. Trains (and planes) let you offload people at various points within the metro region, so there's less of a highway bottleneck[2].

Maybe those studies were biased. Certainly many critics believed so. But the relative costs are much closer than people tend to believe.

[2] Especially considering the geography.

[etrabroline]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_High-Speed_Rail#Con...

>In March 2018, the Authority revised its estimate to $77.3 billion and up to $98.1 billion, pushing initial service to 2029 and services from Los Angeles to San Francisco to 2033

The cost of Ca HSR has gone up to $98 billion. There is no way building even 6 airports could possibly cost that much, and you can build the airports when you need the capacity one at a time and airports support travel to anywhere in the world, not just the handful of other cities in California the rails connect to.

https://www.therichest.com/luxury-architecture/10-most-expen...

> #1: Kansai International Airport - $20 billion

So California could build 5 huge earthquake proof airports in the middle of the ocean including sea wall and bridge for the cost of HSR. It just makes no sense. I'm not opposed to rail or high-speed rail. But the places where better public transportation are needed are mostly in the US North East where density is much higher. Existing rail infrastructure is crumbling in the North East while California asks for Federal money for white elephant boondoggles like Ca HRS. It's infuriating.

[wahern]

Much of the cost increases you see in figures like those quoted for CAHSR are related to timelines.

First, projected infrastructure project costs in the United States are usually quoted (by agencies) in year of expenditure dollars, which means projected expenditures for each particular year are literally inflated. If you push a project back 15 years, you can easily see double-digit percentage increases in quoted total expenditures. I don't know the exact figure but AFAIU this is very much the case with CAHSR--a large fraction, and perhaps even a majority, of nominal cost increases is related to inflation adjustments as the timeline keeps getting pushed back and stretched. (Of course, that still leaves a large component that isn't.)

Secondly, pushing back timelines incurs all sorts of additional real costs. For example, you have to extend supply and labor contracts, which often means you end up getting less for your money because more people and equipment will end up sitting around idle for longer. You can also incur greater financing costs.

Also, I don't think any of the figures in that therichest.com link are inflation adjusted. AFAICT, they seem to just be tallying the year-of-expenditure or perhaps year-of-completion costs. This difference compounds inflation discrepancies even more. (There are other problems w/ those comparisons, too, such as that most of those airports were built far away from developed areas, but it's not worth going down that rabbit hole.)

Time is the the most critical component in all large construction projects, public or private. Time is money isn't just a catchphrase. If there are any hand-wavy, magical solutions to the cost problem that can be easily applied, one of the simplest and most obvious is to finish projects as quickly as possible. Don't let them linger and get stretched out.

Unfortunately, there are often political and regulatory pressures that push things in the wrong direction. If political blowback causes timelines to be stretched out, directly or indirectly, cost increases become a self-fulfilling prophecy. After learning about the accounting methods for how projected costs are quoted, and in particular digging into CAHSR costs, I vowed as a voting citizen to never oppose a project once it got off the ground, even if I initially opposed it.

[PaulDavisThe1st]

I think given the variation in costs for HSR worldwide, we need to consider the first point of discussion for CA (or US) HSR to be "why are the costs so much higher here?"

It's true that the costs are crazy high, but that's not true worldwide. That means that objections to CA/US HSR are initially (at least) really objections to the ridiculous costs, not the actual idea itself.