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by DonHopkins 1866 days ago
"Big Sky Theory"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_sky_theory

>In aviation, the Big Sky Theory is that two randomly flying bodies are very unlikely to collide, as the three-dimensional space is so large relative to the bodies. Some aviation safety rules involving altimetry and navigation standards are based on this concept. It does not apply when aircraft are flying along specific narrow routes, such as an airport traffic pattern or jet airway.

>The Big Sky Theory has been mathematically modeled, using a gas law approach. This implies that collisions of aircraft in free flight should be extremely rare in en-route airspace, whereas operational errors such as violations of formal separation standards should be relatively common. Three critical parameters are the number of flying objects per unit volume, their speed, and their size. Larger, faster objects, flying in a traffic-rich environment are more collision-prone.

http://code7700.com/big_sky_theory.htm

>It seems that there are a lot of pilots out there that believe in the "Big Sky Technique." They think the amount of airspace out there is so wide and vast, and that they are so small, that the chances of hitting another aircraft is too small to worry about. And yet history begs to differ.

The Big Sky - Kate Bush

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV7w5TaYjRA&ab_channel=KateB...

    They look down
    At the ground
    Missing
    But I never go in now

    I'm looking at the big sky
    I'm looking at the big sky now
    I'm looking at the big sky
    You never understood me
    You never really tried
Big Sky - Lou Reed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug_Z-gu7u44&ab_channel=Naoyo...

    Big sky, big sky holding up the sun
    Big sky, big sky holding up the moon
    Big sky holding down the sea
    But it can't hold us down anymore

    Big sky holding up the stars
    Big sky holding Venus and Mars
    Big sky catch you in a jar
    But it can't hold us down anymore

    Big sky, big enormous place
    Big wind blow all over the place
    Big storm wrecking havoc and waste
    But it can't hold us down anymore
1 comments

The problem is that the theory mostly works. "See and avoid" ends up mostly depending on the good odds a lot of the time. Except when it doesn't as in this case.