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by octodog
1867 days ago
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Do you have any sources for cloth or surgical masks not working? The study in this article [0] is still in pre-print but it claims that a change to mandatory mask wearing was a critical factor in crushing the virus in Melbourne's second wave. I've seen some comments on HN that masks aren't effective but from what I've read and observed in Melbourne/Australia they have been very effective. [0] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-14/face-masks-number-one... |
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Melbourne did everything they could think of, and the sum of it worked. This included a very severe lockdown, contact tracing, masking in the very limited public interactions which were allowed, and starting with a relatively low case count. I'm fairly confident that masks were the least important part of this, and that shutting down basically every part of public life was the most.
I did say that masking early on was indicated, and that WHO and CDC failed us there. I sort of glossed over the part where case counts were low, but it's there, and it's pretty important.
What the US and Europe needed early is what New Zealand and Australia (and Taiwan, Korea, maybe a couple other Southeast Asian countries) actually managed: universal masking, a nearly-complete cessation of public life, widespread testing, contact tracing, and central quarantine for the infected. Instead, we got dithering and "wash your hands".
It was too late for that suite of interventions to be effective by 1st April at the latest. Earlier for Europe, which had the early wave epidemic in Italy.
So of course, that's when masking was adopted, as a totemic symbol that the powers that be were "doing something". But we had crossed the point where it could help, and it was always the least important thing.