[spfzero]

In your first paragraph, you say there's no way to contact trace outdoors, and in the second you say there are documented cases of it happening.

There are ways to predict your chances of getting infected from someone outdoors. You back-trace from known cases, identify the people they have interacted with, and from those that later contracted Covid, you note whether the contact was indoors or outdoors. There is plenty of data to do that with.

[makomk]

The instances of outdoor infection that have been documented aren't just random strangers passing each other on the street or sitting near each other - as I recall they involved people who knew each other, which obviously makes contact tracing easier. Also, one of the ones I know of was in New Zealand during the period where every case was headline news and aggressively investigated, and the other was in China which similarly had very few cases that were very aggressively traced. This does not say good things about how well countries with more cases are detecting outdoor transmission.