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by brianwawok 1869 days ago
What percentage of the American public understand what a confidence interval is? I have 95% confidence that this number is under 0.1% using the methodology of pulling numbers out of my butt.

I have been in college level stat classes where many people didn't truly grasp confidence interval. While I would love the data, I think it's not really the most important thing during a crisis.

2 comments

They don't have to say its a confidence interval. Just say something like: "Though outdoor infections are uncommon, how uncommon is uncertain. Based on the limited data available, we estimate outdoor infections to make up anywhere between 0.1% and 10% of total infections". That is honest, transparent, and doesn't require understanding any statistical theory like confidence intervals.
No - but a lot of people by now work with someone or know someone who does understand stats. So people could talk about these things and start to understand it.