[ehnto]

> This marks the beginning of a new era for SpaceX, one where it will aim to routinely fly astronauts to the ISS

Does anyone have much insight into the longevity of the ISS from now? I can see it's approved for operation until 2024, so just 3 years, but could potentially continue to operate after that.

If the ISS does get decommissioned, how many years does that process take, and once it's gone, what purpose does Crew Dragon serve?

Not trying to be negative, hopefully by 2028 or even 2024 we will have concrete operations underway for continued space station development that could use Crew Dragon, but it does seem bold calling it a new era, when it's so precariously reliant on the ISS existing.

[nickik]

I can answer some of that, 2024 is the current limit. But 2028 is being considered and I think its politically likely.

It could probably be extend even further but it would require incensing maintenance and expensive re-qualification.

NASA already has a plan however. They have a contract with Axiom Space to extend the ISS with new modules. After they have about 4 new modules they should eventually decouple after ISS and be a free floating station.

NASA already has a program in planning for a commercial space station. The same way they did Commercial Crew and the moon lander. They have already asked companies to come up with plans for a station. SierraNevada really wants that contract and SpaceX will probably bid something, probably others. These would be free floating privately run stations

So NASA basically hopes that sometime between 2024 and 2028 there will be two new stations and then its politically easier to drop ISS.

Crew Dragon can still do free flying missions (as they will do later this year) but SpaceX hopes to replace it with Starship.

[rtkwe]

I think the ISS will be dragged along until there's a plan for a new station which may include replacing the more ancient components instead of an entirely new station. I have a hard time seeing NASA and the US government giving up on having a continuously operated space station in LEO. What that likely means given the overall gridlock and every administration messing with the plans at NASA is that the ISS limps along until the modules themselves need to be replaced.