Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by hash872 1871 days ago
Over the lifespan of owning the building, say a few decades, you can expect:

1. Rare but highly expensive major expenses like a new roof, new heating system, etc. It's like a tail risk- you don't pay for it most years, but when it comes up, it costs a lot.

2. Required renovations- just to stay at your current level of quality. I.e. let's say you rent to normal middle class tenants now. In 10-15 years, you'll need to install a new kitchen, new bathroom, overall maintenance- just to stay at a middle class level. The building is constantly depreciating! So unless you intend to move economically downscale and rent to lower income folks, to stay 'middle class' you'll need to refresh the building every decade or two. No one wants an ancient kitchen, a decrepit bathroom from three presidents ago, etc.

So you have to factor those two major expenses into your total rate of return over the decades. How much is a new roof, a new heating system, that new kitchen, that new bathroom.... You may not see these expenses every year, so you don't feel like they count, but over the decades they will.

Source, am actually familiar with the true rate of return for properties over a long enough time span to judge. A 1-3 year snapshot isn't sufficient!

4 comments

Source, am actually familiar with the true rate of return for properties over a long enough time span to judge.

And what is it?

Most folks I know that purchase properties are not in it for cashflow. Breaking even is enough. The goal is to purchase the next one with a downpayment against existing equity. The deck of cards falls apart if the property market corrects significantly but how is that different than everything else happening in this economy.
For one it's an extremely capital intensive operation for most folks. In fact buying a property is usually many times their net worth. Which means now one is not allowed to make mistakes, because losing means not only going to zero, but going underwater many times over what the cashflow can cover.

This argument falls apart once a property is a fraction of someone's net worth, but it's rarely the case.

Thanks. This is great insight and one that is missing from most online discussions. I am really terrified of this situation because it will bring down my ROI. Also, I dont like to deal with contractors and related headaches. We will see how it pans out.
> Source, am actually familiar with the true rate of return for properties over a long enough time span to judge.

What is it? 7% 11%? Do you factor in financing leverage when you make the tenant pay the principal to your mortgage (if any)?

1-4%? At first you are just paying almost 66% or more interest and mostly not the mortgage principal, here is an amortization calendar https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/mortgages/amortization-...

If you want leverage, you can get vastly more leverage for risky stock market trades (I am not advocating for doing that, I just think it's odd when real estate proponents talk about 'leverage' as if it's unique to buying a building)