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by rsj_hn 1866 days ago
I don't think Musk is intentionally lying about autonomy, this is just his worldview. He truly believes that strong AI is just around the corner and it poses an existential threat to the human race, and by the same token, of course we'll have full self-driving cars as soon as just a few small kinks are ironed out. These beliefs stem from a very strong worldview, and are not attempts at stock price manipulation or some kind of investor scam. Musk is convinced that there isn't a very big difference between the human brain and the tech inside GPUs combined with some matrix multiplication and training data, and these differences, to the degree they exist, are easily bridged with a bit of software. That's a core element of his beliefs.

What is more interesting is why he hasn't learned that his worldview is so fundamentally wrong. And for that, I would say that it's hard for very rich and successful people to acknowledge they are so completely wrong about important things.

3 comments

> I don't think Musk is intentionally lying about autonomy, this is just his worldview.

I’ll say that’s a rather naive view. It sounds like saying Mark Zuckerberg is not lying about FB and privacy, it is just his worldview that nobody should have privacy, except of course him and his family.

No, it's not the same thing. Musk has been very vocal about thinking the world will end because of AI robots running amok. This is not some stock-boosting ploy, it is who he is. Unlike Zuckerberg, Musk is quite transparent about his aims and his values, and most people are able to recognize this.
When you keep saying the same thing year after year "we will have L5 this year" and you see with your eyes that 100% of your predictions were wrong, but still do it again. I find it hard to believe that this is coming from his "worldview" and think it's more like lying to create hype so you can sell more products, get more investment and boost stocks (which all happened thanks to what he has done)
> and are not attempts at stock price manipulation or some kind of investor scam

Why isn't he working on stuff in a full open source manner like Linus of Linux did back in the day?

Also , let's assume you are in it to solve the problem and believe that the for-profit model is the better than opensource ...then why not live modestly like Warren Buffett?

Guy knows what he's doing. He wants to be famous and rich and surronded by yes-men and yes-girls.

When i remember correctly he came up with the robotaxi pitch when tesla went through a difficult phase. Autopilot feature was going well enough. This came handy to position Tesla as „far ahead“ in terms of technology. Now that every other OEM jumped on the hypetrain it does seem to no longer matter if those bold claims ever become reality or not.