[mediaman]

I've talked with several business owners in a major west coast metro.

One has retail hospitality jobs open. Total take home pay is $80k annually. People won't even show up for interviews. He's never seen anything like it.

Another is a manufacturing company. Starting pay is $20/hour for someone who can show up and use a tape measure. They're trying to add another shift of production to meet demand but can't get labor.

There's a popular narrative of "poor business owner! Try not paying minimum wage!" but this is mostly coming from people who don't have first-hand experience in hiring, don't know business owners trying to hire less-skilled workers, and believe these reports are coming from people attempting to offer just the minimum wage.

Financial incentives are not working. I'm not convinced it's only UI - it could be childcare as well, or reticence about COVID, or a mix of all above plus more. But it's clear it's not fictional, and it's clear it's not just a matter of not paying minimum wage.

[jeffbee]

The business owners might not be wrong, but they might not be right, either. Many people, at least in my area, simply cannot accept jobs even if the compensation seems reasonable, because our housing crisis is severe and our transportation system is garbage. When the median home price is $1.6 million, people you want to hire at $20/hr are driving in from 2+ hours away, which when you consider that many schools and other child care systems are still closed or partially closed means that taking these jobs is simply not possible. The whole thing is tied together. Sensible land use and good transportation will keep a lid on wages. Bad land use and terrible transportation will cause wages to rise.

[N1H1L]

Exactly. Labor market is linked to many other things. Wages are the most important factor, but not the only factor.

[abxytg]

I can promise you that "People won't even show up for interviews. He's never seen anything like it." is not accurate. Either he isn't advertising the wage and he needs to be, or he is lying his ass off. I know so many people that would take any old job at $80k.

[missedthecue]

I don't think you're being nuanced enough. Wendy's in Montana is offering $17.50 an hour and not getting applicants. That's clearly a sign of some deep structural labor market issues.

[abxytg]

That's a TOTALLY different story than not being able to find people at $80k my guy.

Also $17.50 is an incomplete picture. How many hours per week? Any benefits? I would bet a years salary that it is <40 and no benefits. Would you take that job?

[missedthecue]

People in feb 2020 were taking the job for $12 an hour. Why won't they take it now for $17.50?

[octernion]

would love a citation for the $17.50 number. every posting for wendy's in MT is $13/hour, which is obviously pathetic.

[missedthecue]

First result

https://www.google.com/search?q=bozeman+montana+wendy%27s+hi...

Also, I don't understand why $13 is "obviously pathetic". I make a little over $15 an hour and I get by just fine.

[Dah00n]

For reference the lowest wage at a McDonald's in Denmark is above $18 plus extra for outside normal working hours like holidays etc.

[gruez]

The GDP per capita of denmark ($61,478) is 50% higher than montana ($39,356).

[mcphage]

I wonder which way cause & effect goes.

[gruez]

I'm sure all developing countries need to do to raise their GDP is to increase their minimum wage!

/s

[Dah00n]

To add, one have a minimum wage while the other have a system where politicians have no say in wages (it's decided by employers and unions).

[godtoldmetodoit]

I was just listening to Yellen talk about this today, she definitely thinks childcare and concerns about covid are the primary forces keeping people from seeking work. Lot's of schools are still only having kids in a few days a week, shutting down at the first sign of a positive covid case etc.

[danaris]

COVID is still a major danger in most of the US, and hospitality is one of the industries where I, at least, would be most concerned about it. You have to be there in person, the customers are going to be coming from everywhere, and a significant percentage of the customers are going to feel fully entitled to abuse you—and the management is highly likely to tell you they're allowed to, and you just have to do whatever they want. Including let them get in your face with no mask, spittle flying.

$80k/yr for that? Risking my health (or even death) from COVID, guaranteeing damage to my mental health from the abuse? Yeah, pass.

I know less about the manufacturing sector, but from what I do know, it's going to have similar problems: you have to be there in person, and because it's widely considered to be "lower-class" work, there's a higher likelihood than average of abusive behavior toward workers.

[caeril]

This is one compelling argument for UBI being far superior to unemployment benefits or welfare. It supports your basic needs, but it doesn't eliminate the incentive to seek employment.

[ZoomerCretin]

Why do you feel this to be a compelling argument? It doesn't matter how high you think the wages are. If they are not attracting enough workers, they are too low.

[missedthecue]

They are competing with the money printer at the federal reserve.

This isn't a competitive environment.

[andrewjl]

Maybe not such a bad thing given the zeitgeist? Also higher and rising labor expenses force higher capex, a long-term benefit for American competitiveness.