[askafriend]

It doesn't take a genius or a DCF model to know that investing in Apple a couple years post-iPhone is a no-brainer. Momentum and trend based investing is just as successful as nerding out over numbers. You can simply be right in broad strokes and be successful - you don't have to get every detail right. It helps to have a long time horizon.

[agent008t]

Sounds like hindsight bias. If it was a no-brainer at the time, everyone would have wanted to buy Apple stock and few would have wanted to sell, pushing the price up to where it no longer is a no-brainer.