[sokoloff]

If you doubled federal individual income taxes for everyone in the US, you could pay each adult US citizen around $750/mo in UBI with that increase.

If you doubled ALL federal income taxes in the US, you could pay each adult US citizen ~$1500/mo in UBI.

The math is daunting because the number of people is so high.

[vetinari]

Taxes do not work linearly like you seem to think.

If you double the tax rate, you won't double the tax revenue. There's a big chance that the revenue would go down.

Another thing is, that money is not the wealth; productivity is. So if you want to pay UBI to everyone and want to keep the same purchase power of the dollar, you have to preserve productivity at the national level (GDP is a measure; but you need that specific physical output as products and services, not money). Which you won't, if a part of population would stop working.

[maxerickson]

A small UBI would end up being net zero for lots and lots of people. No burden, no benefit (except the knowledge it would still come in if their circumstances changed).

[jl2718]

No. Because nobody would work, and corporations would invest all revenues offshore. The country would be destroyed, and you’d get nothing. Income taxation is one of the most economically destructive and violent ways to generate revenues.

Do you seriously think it’s a good idea to point guns at people doing the work and tell them to give you 80-100% of their pay because you think you deserve it for doing nothing?

Only a violent sociopath would do that, right? Please tell me how your proposal is different.

[sokoloff]

Sorry if it wasn’t clear (and I can see how I left it slightly unclear).

I don’t see any viable path to paying UBI at those relatively low levels because the tax burden on people and companies is too high. (And frankly, $750/mo isn’t enough to accomplish what the UBI advocates want to promise which is to make work literally optional.)

[jhauris]

I'm not at all convinced of UBI, but does your math include removing all the tax that pays for benefits that would no longer be needed such as unemployment, social security, etc.? It seems removing those benefits would reduce the tax burden significantly.

[NovemberWhiskey]

That's a nice theory at steady-state, but how do you get there?

If UBI is less generous than Social Security, then you have a problem.

You have lots of retirees (15% of the population) who have been promised Social Security and have retired on that basis. You also have lots of people that are relatively near retirement that will be in the streets with pitchforks if you threaten their benefits: Social Security is the original third rail of American politics - touch it and you die.

You basically need to allow people to choose whether to get UBI or stay in Social Security. This creates a gigantic fiscal bulge because you end up funding Social Security for everyone for whom it represents a better deal.

If UBI is more generous than Social Security, then you also have a problem. You are effectively exchanging it like-for-like and there's no extra tax take to spread around.

[sokoloff]

It does not, but I also don't see any way that a $750/mo provides a viable path to remove a $1500/mo average (and 150+% of that for many) Social Security payment for people who contributed to FICA over their entire working lives and properly planned on that money as part of their retirement finances.

Morally and politically, I can’t see how to make UBI replace social security. You might be able to make reduced UBI payments to seniors, but at some point you have to ask “what does the U in UBI stand for?”

[dragonwriter]

> but does your math include removing all the tax that pays for benefits that would no longer be needed such as unemployment, social security, etc.?

Earned benefits like unemployment, disability, and social security are usually not targeted for replacement by UBI, and it is dubious that it makes them unnecessary (especially UI/DI, given benefit levels) unless it is at a very high level.

[UncleMeat]

Even ignoring the ridiculous 80-100% here, people who don't work aren't "doing nothing". There is more to the human endeavor than buying and selling.

Why do you take weekends? Or go home in the evening? Why aren't you using your evenings to be a "productive member of society"?

[josephcsible]

There's a difference between "I don't spend literally all of my time productively contributing to society" and "I never productively contribute to society".

[UncleMeat]

Why is a job synonymous with "productively contributing to society"? I can think of a lot of jobs that appear to make society worse and a lot of activities that aren't jobs that make society much much better.

[Mediterraneo10]

It is a mistake to assume that those living on UBI and not working in formal employment would be "never productively contributing to society". Sure, a portion of UBI recipients might be entirely idle, but others would contribute to things that are seen as a social positive even if they don’t neatly fit into profit-generating, paid-salary-position-creating activities.

For example, if I didn’t have to work myself, I could finally do some of the more ambitious contributions to OpenStreetMap that I have been dreaming of: adding all the missing house numbers for my county, for instance. Then society as a whole benefit from that libre resource even if I as a contributor was not paid a salary for it. By the same token, some of the most active Wikipedia editors are able to dedicate such enormous time and effort because, for whatever reason, they do not work. Yet all of us here benefit day in and day out from what they do.

[josephcsible]

I expect that in practice, you'd get way more entirely idle people than you would people who worked on things like OpenStreetMap and Wikipedia.

[Daishiman]

So?

[lazyasciiart]

And where in that false dichotomy do you put raising children?

[josephcsible]

How is what I said a false dichotomy? I'm not saying those are the only two possibilities. I'm just saying they're not one and the same, which my parent comment implied they were.

[jl2718]

I don’t care about that. All I care about is that people realize that taking from others is only achievable through violence and/or deception.

[wing-_-nuts]

80-100%? Holy hyperbole batman.

Stop beating that strawman! He's already dead.

[bzbarsky]

If the suggestion were in fact to double "all federal income taxes", what do you think tax rates would end up looking like? Right now the top "all taxes" federal marginal rate is 39.35%. (2.35% Medicare, and 37% individual income tax). Doubling that gets you to 78.7%. And state taxes also exist; in California the top rate would be > 90% overall.

And of course doubling rates will not double revenue, because incentives really are a thing and a change this large would have large incentive-mediated effects, including people ending up with more compensation in non-taxable form (leisure, respect, non-taxable perqs, etc). The only way to double _revenue_ is for rates to rise even more, or more likely to start affecting more people (i.e. the top rate starting to apply at lower income levels).

Now those are marginal, not average, rates. But just to be clear, right now US government (federal, state, local) spending is ~46% of GDP. Federal spending on its own is ~30% of GDP. If we are talking about doubling that second number, overall government spending would be 76% of GDP. Which generally means the _average_ tax burden across all people would be 76% of income (though some of that can get hidden via corporate income taxes and whatnot). There will absolutely have to be people with average tax burdens > 80% to suport that. That's assuming that we don't finance things by borrowing, of course; 1/3 of US government spending right now is not even coming from tax revenue.

It might also be instructive to compare 76% government spending to the table at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_governmen... to see how that measures up against other countries.

[wing-_-nuts]

Be real man, no country on earth is taxing their people at 80-100%. I'd happily trade scandi taxes for scandi safety nets and worker protections. I think those max out at ~ 50%?

Regardless, I don't know why I get pulled into debates with people who view taxes as theft instead of the price of a civilized society. Neither of us are ever going to change our world views based on the arguments of another.

[bzbarsky]

> Be real man, no country on earth is taxing their people at 80-100%

Sure. Neither is any country providing a $750/month UBI, much less $1500/month, from taxes. (Some countries do provide that sort of thing for citizens from oil revenues or whatnot.)

> I'd happily trade scandi taxes for scandi safety nets and worker protections. I think those max out at ~ 50%?

~50 govt revenue as a fraction of GDP, yes. A lot of that is VAT, not income taxes, of course.

But also, that's not the same as the discussion above about UBI. Yes, a Scandinavian-style safety net can be done at much lower taxation levels than "doubling the US federal revenues", especially people by and large don't abuse the safety net. Spending 1% of GDP on the military, not 3%, also helps a bit.

> people who view taxes as theft instead of the price of a civilized society

I have no idea where you got that from anything I said, and that is most certainly not how I view taxes.

> Neither of us are ever going to change our world views based on the arguments of another.

Honestly, it sounds like you have no idea what my world view even is...

[bingbong70]

>Sure. Neither is any country providing a $750/month UBI, much less $1500/month, from taxes. (Some countries do provide that sort of thing for citizens from oil revenues or whatnot.)

Kuwait pays ~$10k per citizen, last I checked. A few countries pay citizens for having children too.

[jl2718]

> I’d happily trade

But that’s not your choice. It’s interesting that you indicate disagreement with how the money is spent, but not how it is taken. This seems like the same concern for those they are taking it from. Can you imagine how a society would function if it were based on consent?