| Agree. I expect 2050, easily, before there's even the remotest hope of even parity with human drivers. I'm always astonished at how those most skilled at software, turn around and explain how software is better than humans at task $x. Yet, I've never used a piece of software without bugs. I've never seen a piece of software, not real world capable, which even remotely close to dealing with things, as well as humans. And the more complex the software, the more bugs. Bugs abound in complex software. Full self driving is as complex as the linux kernel, easily. How many bugs are in the Linux kernel? Right now? To even hope, even begin to hope that things will be mostly bug free, bug free beyond human "bugs" when driving, we'd: - Need to 100% freeze the platform, so the car has zero changes. Ever. Like a Volvo, 10+, 20+ years with only fixes for flaws. No change in drive train. No change in how the car handles, etc. - A 100% feature freeze fix for years and years, only bug fixes, no feature add. It's just not happening overnight. And when it does, cars are going to require an addition of massive sensors, it's not going to be camera or radar, it's going to be camera, radar, lidar, motion, wind, and 50 other environmental sensors. It's going to be mainine computing power in triplicate. Connectivity and sensors in triplicate. 100%, no way is the AI CPU even slightly network connected. No over-the-air updates. Bugs cannot happen. Bugs kill. Bad hardware kills. I do get that having a car self drive, in the desert, in constantly warm temp is an easy thing. Try it at -40C, in a snow storm, with a snow filled road, in the country with no ditches, no lines to see (due to snow), in the dark, when windy, periodic white-outs, and more. Heck, I'll say there's a chance when AI can drive on a frozen lake. And yes, humans do and can. So far, all AI driving is monoculture. Not to mention, how about a 20 year old car? Or even 10? "Buy new?" Now you hate the environment! And 20 year old cars are driven daily by humans, no they aren't the primary cause of accidents, because, when driving you notice issues in the feel of how the car drives. Can AI "feel" that? Sure! But that means loads and loads of sensors! And cost! ANd repair bills! To be honest, my 2050 thing is likely mostly due to this. Cost. |
Speaking of Sweden's road safety rate...