[ekianjo]

> not deeply understanding it enough to provide reasonable estimates,

Reasonable estimates like what ? If your company works on something that has never been done before there is not much data at hand to make good estimates is it ?

[6gvONxR4sf7o]

I have so many colleagues with that sentiment who give terrible plans because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ it’s research. They mostly talk about timelines for the big end goal pie in the sky, and they’re generally wrong. That was me when I was more junior.

I also have colleagues who promise small concrete incremental deliverables in predictable timelines. They rarely talk concretely about the big end goal pie in the sky’s timeline, but generally deliver the big thing sooner anyways.

The answer isn’t making reasonable estimates of an inestimable thing, it’s providing reasonable estimates for the reasonably estimable pieces. Instead of “we’ll have ultra mega science in three to five years!” it’s, “we’ll have this specific piece of the stack built by 2022 and we hope it’ll enable these other slightly less concrete things towards ultra mega science.”

[Roritharr]

Sadly, this is great for the actual working condition and environment, but nothing that attracts funding.

[6gvONxR4sf7o]

Fundraising isn’t some magical situation where bad behavior is suddenly acceptable because it works, but I understand your point.

[Pyramus]

The point is Elon knows exactly whether estimates are achievable or not, but does it anyways.

There is a reason why legally Autopilot/FSD is a driver-assist system, but for marketing purposes robotaxis are just around the corner.

There is a fine line between 'overly optimistic' and misleading, and more often than not, Elon crosses the line.

See https://elonmusk.today/ for an overview (if a bit biased).

[Pfhreak]

Everything from self driving, to shipping cars, to moon and Mars missions. It's one thing to be an optimist. It's another to promise something you have no path to deliver.

[garmaine]

SoaceX just got a sole-source contract with NASA to send humans to the moon in 3 years.

[Pfhreak]

Musk said he'd be launching a mission to Mars every possible window starting 2024. Including manned missions. I believe he was going to send an experimental mission to Mars before that.

My point isn't that these companies don't get there, it's that they take much, much, much longer than estimated.

[garmaine]

The first one won’t be crewed, and there’s no way that’s going to be ready by 2022. So 2024 will be unmanned. Maybe 2026 will be the first crewed test mission, but 2028 is more likely. But we’re still talking aspirational Elon-time. If I were betting money, I’d say the 2030’s is more realistic.

Note that they have done zero work on building a anything other than the rocket body to get there. Making the interior volume habitable for 2 years of interplanetary travel is going to be non-trivial.

[fastball]

FSD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_zTZjCCoxo&list=PLbNT8bE4Cg...

Shipping cars: https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-v...

Moon: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/as-artemis-moves-forward-...

Mars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Raptor

[Robotbeat]

I agree with self driving... But Tesla IS shipping a heck of a lot of cars, now. And sending people to the Moon and Mars seem increasingly likely.

[Pfhreak]

Yes, now they are. Tesla circa 2014 was very different.