Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by teddykoker 1869 days ago
You can find Benter’s paper about the model here: https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1994-benter.p...

About a year ago I read this and attempted to build a similar model (with more layers ;)) using data I scraped from Hong Kong Jockey Club’s website. Although I used much fewer features, it still produced profit in held-out races: https://teddykoker.com/2019/12/beating-the-odds-machine-lear.... Obviously there are many caveats when backtesting like this but I thought it was a fun project!

1 comments

So basically the model was just a single layer neural net with extra proprietary data?
Data and meaning is the key.

I had a coworker who would prepare for weeks for stakes races and follow a few second tier horses as well. Twitter made some aspects easier as there is a racetrack Twitter community. His specialty was identifying exactas where a long shot would place or win with a favorite.

He’d pay people to film workout at Belmont and Saratoga and tweak his model (an Excel spreadsheet) based on what he saw. He would have a sense based on the workouts, weather, etc and would pick 4-10 races a week.

Yup! Just a multinomial logistic regression model with a bunch of proprietary data and engineered features.