[lebuffon]

The history of theses things in India seems to be the track that Covid followed everywhere.

Is it just human psychology that is the problem?

1st wave: everybody clamps down. R goes to < 1

2nd wave: people think it's over R goes >1, then clamp down again.

3rd wave: more of no. 2 but with a broader base of carriers across the nation.

3rd wave in India therefore will be really nasty based on other nations 3rd wave, unless their rapid vaccination plan gets a big percentage of the populace vaccinated over the next few months.

[maxerickson]

I think there's some things that are pretty common.

The exponential nature of the spread makes it so that things are getting very risky well before the risk is obvious or apparent.

The payoff for avoiding a surge is pretty abstract. For a lot of people it ends up being that people they don't know don't get sick, and things like that.

And then a year is a long time to deal with reduced socialization, we are social animals, "quarantine fatigue" isn't surprising in relation to that.