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by bluzeee 1874 days ago
It is very unfortunate that a single guy using one single resource is creating a false narrative about an entire country and is misusing this forum to spread false narrative. While even scientists are puzzled on the cause [0], a few like the above commenter for sure knows the causes conclusively

India unlike U.S. and other western countries needs more careful analysis due to its diverse nature, larger informal economy and lack of proper data collection practices. Any simple attribution like the commenter is doing is simply false narrative

1. Anyone who has been tracking India covid cases closely knows, the most affected and contributing (72%) states for the second wave have been Maharastra and Kerala [0]

2. And, as second wave picked-up just 6 states contributed to 86.37% of new Covid-19 cases as per the data tracking [1]

3. Why did it spike in Maharastra ? Read [3] & [4] Importantly note the point on variant "This surge has started from Vidarbha, and it is hard to believe that mutant variants didn’t have a role to play"

4. Now, lets talk about variant found [4] "Two leading experts recently contended that a new coronavirus mutant strain was reportedly detected in Amravati, Yavatmal, and Akola, all in the Vidarbha region in the eastern part of the state"

5. Above comment talks about religious event which is kumbh mela which took happened in Haridwar, Uttarakhand state. Do you see the state in any of the listed states contributing to the raise ? No. Let's put today's status, is that state even in the top: 10 [5]

6. And do you know you need a permit and negative covid test report to participate in this religious event ? [6]

7. He talks about Narendra modi rallies. Seriously ? He took rallies in the states where elections being conducted by Indian election commission, like all all other political parties he has to support his party. This is saying like Biden cannot take election rally while Trump goes on giving daily speeches. Importantly, do you see the state of Westbengal where election allies happened in the top ?

8. As Maharastra went into curfew, poor migrant labor mainly from Bihar and UP and people from other states rushed back home and there is no data how this might have affected

9. Did BJP declare victory over virus ? Yes. But there is no scientific or data based attribution of spike Or the commenters indirect attribution of peoples laxity and not wearing masks to victory declaration is misguiding

[0] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/indias-massive-co...

[1] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-updates-f...

[2] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/6-states-contribut...

[3] https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-why-is...

[4] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/maharashtra-hits-1...

[5] https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/ne...

[6] https://www.covid19india.org/

[7] https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/kumbh-2021-limited-to-30-day...

6 comments

This is a narrative to protect a naked emperor.

The vidarbha strain is also spread through out the country, and its not like the same mutations cannot appear elsewhere independently.

The most populous state in India, UP, with 220 mn people, the worst medical infrastructure has better numbers than maharashtra. However having a Chief Minister who has gone ahead and threatened people for asking for help and even arresting/threatening journalists.

This was a preventable apocalypse. Modi spent all of last year talking about how India is self sufficient and we are magnanimously helping other nations.

The promoted cow urine, homeopathy and naturopathy when those resources could have been used last year.

The Major religious events were brought forward. When 8 phases of elections were allowed and the opposition asked for shorter elections, the BJP was the one who objected.

The data has been intentionally fudged to leave governments, local and central looking better and the most partisan calculus has been at play when the center decides who gets help in the states.

> When 8 phases of elections were allowed and the opposition asked for shorter elections, the BJP was the one who objected.

The 2011 elections were held in 6 phases.[1]

The 2016 elections were held in 6-7 phases.[2]

Why should it be any different this year?

If everyone was so concerned about the pandemic, they should have requested that president's rule be declared in Bengal till the pandemic is over.

Every Indian knows how violent Bengal elections generally are[3] and how voters are intimidated. Hundreds of BJP political workers have been terrorized and murdered in Bengal over the last few years.[4]

When it comes to the Bengal elections, COVID is just an excuse. Shorter elections with reduced security is a nice way to murder democracy.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_West_Bengal_Legislative_A...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_West_Bengal_Legislative_A...

3. https://www.thequint.com/news/politics/polling-advances-in-b...

> Taking advantage of this slackness, some state police personnel and TMC supporters became active in pressuring rural voters and taking recourse to unfair means. The most serious incident of TMC intimidation occurred in Shalboni’s Adharnayan villages where about 100-150 ruling party activists attacked some journalists and the CPI(M) candidate Shaymsundar Pande.

> According to reports, the TMC goons beat up Pande and the media persons, snatched away the camera of one news channel, damaged vehicles and tried to set fire to a few parked vehicles. The reports alleged that CPMF jawans stood by without taking action against the TMC cadres. Despite repeated appeals to rescue the journalists, the jawans did not move.

> Additional reports suggested that in Nayagram area under West Medinipur constituency TMC workers threatened villagers with dire consequences if they dared to leave their homes to cast their vote. The villagers complained that since they were BJP supporters they were ordered by the TMC workers and state police personnel not to leave their homes. The BJP candidate there was also similarly threatened by them. In Taldangra, Bankura, a state police assistant sub-inspector was seen taking bribes inside a polling booth.

4. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amit-shah-in-west-be...

There wasn’t a pandemic in those years.
> 7. He talks about Narendra modi rallies. Seriously ? He took rallies in the states where elections being conducted by Indian election commission, like all all other political parties he has to support his party. This is saying like Biden cannot take election rally while Trump goes on giving daily speeches. Importantly, do you see the state of Westbengal where election allies happened in the top ?

Yes he was not the only one conducting mass rallies but as the leader of the nation, was it not his responsibility to set an example in the country's fight against covid? Should we not hold the Prime Minister to a higher standard? Yes, every party held mass rallies and shame on all of them - it does not excuse Modi though.

He has a termendous fan following in India ready to do what he says (lighting lamps, clanging vessels) - he just does seem to be able to channel that devotion into something positive.

>6. And do you know you need a permit and negative covid test report to participate in this religious event ? [6]

We dont have capacity to test the number of people who were attending the Kumbh mela daily. 10k tests may be the capacity appx, while appx 10 million people will be attending over a month.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/over-9-1-million-p...

Please understand India as reported by media is way different from the ground reality.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/health/kumbh-amid-covid-...

> We dont have capacity

By we, do you mean you personally? Or do you have the entire state machinery reporting to you.

You keep talking about ground reality. You mostly seem to be adding to the chaos.

Maybe when all this is over, have the government setup a commission to investigate negligence, profiteering and other acts but how exactly are you helping anyone by spreading more panic

> 6. And do you know you need a permit and negative covid test report to participate in this religious event?

Well if this were true, how were hundreds of people there found to be infected [0]? In any case, there was absolutely no need to allow it at a critical time like this. We're probably very lucky that the event did not end in absolute catastrophe, like it very well could have.

[0] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56742231

>7. He talks about Narendra modi rallies. Seriously ? He took rallies in the states where elections being conducted by Indian election commission, like all all other political parties he has to support his party. This is saying like Biden cannot take election rally while Trump goes on giving daily speeches. Importantly, do you see the state of Westbengal where election allies happened in the top ?

He is the head of the nation. The larger the power center, the larger the responsibility. This guy literally boasted about the size of the crowd less than 10 days back, in the bang middle of the pandemic.

He deserves to be tried for murder, as well as the election officials.

> negative covid test report to participate in this religious event

It depends on the type of covid test, if this is going to be useful. Tests range from negligible error to significant false negatives.