[throwaway0a5e]

The big bottleneck is mill capacity (as evidenced by the fact that timber prices have not increased much). Unexpected high demand is driving most of the rest of it. Both of those affect Canada as well. Tariffs are only a small part of the overall cost increase.

[totalZero]

If this is the case, then lumber should be backwardated right now.

checks the futures market

And indeed it is. May trades 40% above Nov on CME.

So if you want to buy a rural house, you can just....wait until a couple of years after the pandemic?

I don't know why you would rush to build a house right now, unless you want to live in technocrat-favored places like Austin and Denver that are seeing demand creation due to permanent WFH among Big Tech companies.