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by dragontamer 1886 days ago
> They conveniently don't track things like fuel prices or food because they are too "volatile".

Factually false. Its not very hard to search for that information. Just type "CPI Food" or "CPI Fuel".

US Food prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIFABSL

US Fuel prices: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/motor-fuel.htm

CPI is the consumer price index, which tracks a variety of prices as an estimate of inflation. The sub-categories are tracked individually, and then averaged together into the overall CPI number.

Even if you distrust the Fed entirely, we can use CBOE futures (the futures market), which has historical performance on a variety of food commodities (pork bellies, orange juice) and fuel (sweet light crude oil). CBOE is literally the free market and non-government.

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Fuel prices are down over the past decade due to the uptick in US oil production. Remember $4+ / gallon US averages? (and $6+ in high cost places like Hawaii?)

COVID19 has also decimated oil prices. Other goods have gone up in price, but fuel prices are really, really low right now, pulling inflation lower.

1 comments

What I meant is that Fed Policy is dictated by Core PCE, so they don't look at that when setting rates. So it doesn't matter if fuel prices skyrocket or drop, it's not anything that gets the headlines. The only thing you hear about is Core PCE or Core CPI. If no policy is enacted by regular CPI, then who cares. The Fed only sees no inflation regardless of the inflation we see all around us.
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=3&isuri...

Core PCE includes food (split between line 9 and line 19), and fuel (line 11).

These are things you can easily google. The composition of the PCE, CPI, and other metrics is public information and publicly documented.

> The Fed only sees no inflation regardless of the inflation we see all around us.

Both CPI and PCE are both up slightly in the past year. Both are measures of inflation and clearly indicate slightly higher prices.

> Core PCE includes food (split between line 9 and line 19), and fuel (line 11).

Wrong.

"The "core" PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices."

https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/518

> Both CPI and PCE are both up slightly in the past year. Both are measures of inflation and clearly indicate slightly higher prices.

Sure, if you consider 1.5% PCE and indication of inflation. By your definition, 0.1% PCE would indicate inflation. But in reality, the target PCE is 2.0%. The numbers that the Fed are using to dictate policy indicate that inflation is not high enough, and yet the evidence of asset inflation is irrefutable.

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-p...

Why are you trying to spread misinformation? What's in it for you?

> Why are you trying to spread misinformation? What's in it for you?

I can say the same thing with you. Why are you spreading false claims about inflation? But such discussions go nowhere pretty fast. As such, I'll take my leave with you. If you have no faith in my discussion points, there's no point continuing.

My final words: the suggestion that the Fed ignores energy prices / food prices is ridiculous at face value. Its listed right there in the statistics and well categorized in the statistics they watch.

> the suggestion that the Fed ignores energy prices / food prices is ridiculous at face value.

Except everywhere it states clearly they exclude it.