[refurb]

Yup. Moderna doesn’t have much to worry about. Most of the volume of vaccine will be sold in the next 6-12 months, not enough time for another manufacturer to develop the manufacturing capability, validate it and get FDA approval.

Even if new vaccines are needed for new variants, it won’t be easy for another company to catch up when the cycle are 12 months long and then you’re onto the next version.

[thaeli]

Plus, once the pandemic is "over" at least officially, their best case scenario is that other manufacturers did implement their parents.. because they can start collecting license fees, and those manufacturers are likely to have made investments in ways that commit them long-term to using processes covered by Moderna's patent portfolio.

[bluGill]

Moderna would probably be happy to license their next vaccine to someone who did invest in a factory. The price would be probably be affordable. I'm not sure it is worth it though, only time will tell if a booster shot is needed.

[achenatx]

booster shots for variants are almost guaranteed to be needed.

[bluGill]

Everyone says that, and work is ongoing, but so far the current vaccines are holding against variants. Time will tell.

[majewsky]

"Their next vaccine" does not need to be a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.