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by feyndev 1890 days ago
What about Michael Burry ?
1 comments

I assume you mean his liking to the Weimar Republic hyperinflation on Twitter? IMO it doesn't make sense, as the situation is completely different.

Germany lost the first world war and had very high and quite sudden war debts plus suddenly had to pay reparations amounting to about 25% of GDP, denominated in foreign currency - this is important. Germany then printed money (this is similar to today) and bought foreign currency in the FX markets, at essentially any price available (this is not). The money flowed to the war winners, out of the domestic economy. This caused instant and quite strong devaluation of the German currency.

What the US does: It invests a comparatively tiny amount of money (~$2 trillion, <4% of GDP) into the local economy, where it will cause actual economic action (people buying things and services), to make up for lack of demand caused by Covid. FX markets are not touched. AFAIK it is aiming to finance at least a part of this through taxation.

When the government spends money like that, the hope is that it nets a return in the future and if you can find such an investment, then you can borrow an infinite amount of money, until everyone is employed, after that the cost of labor will go up and it no longer becomes possible to net a higher return with new investments.

If there are ways to increase the competitiveness of your economy and you successfully execute your investments this can only be a blessing. I mean think about it, you get to build the most advanced infrastructure for free. As China and others take your jobs you can use the free time of your population to massively improve your own country.

If you fail to invest or your investments are a drag, then it can be a curse of course.