[viraptor]

While not impossible, there are a few things that I think would need good explanations:

- labs would get more flu swabs which test negative - there would be enough globally to make someone suspicious

- why did we see only one strain of covid initially if it was already spreading early (and as I understand it the strain hierarchy always points to the Wuhan one on top)

- we haven't seen the cases drop completely without special measures in any country (there's a drop in summer, but only partial) - why was Australia pretty much covid free initially with all the assumed 2019 cases?

[taxicabjesus]

1. Flu cases numbers are estimates. Flu cases have disappeared, presumably on account of everyone getting SARS-CoV-2 instead.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-...

2. Figuring out if a person has a strain requires genetic sequencing of samples that tested positive for generic COVID-19. I don't know when this became possible.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/how-are-covid-19-v...

3. Some populations are healthier than others. I think 'Special measures' are mostly theater.

[viraptor]

> 1. Flu cases numbers are estimates. Flu cases have disappeared, presumably on account of everyone getting SARS-CoV-2 instead.

The flu statistics are estimates based on a few sources - some including testing. There's still a number of swabs from people with flu symptoms being tested. In the proposed situation, the labs would register a large number of tests for flu coming back negative for both flu and common cold. There are people whose job is to notice trends like that.

2. It doesn't matter when the testing became possible. If multiple strains existed before, we'd likely see some "sibling" strains and common ancestors to the Wuhan and X strain. Both the siblings and X seem to be absent.

3. If you're ready to put the fall of infections right as the lockdown were implemented to a coincidence / healthy population, then I'm not sure it's even worth discussing the other aspects.

Btw, the context here is Australia. (You posted links to CDC)

[taxicabjesus]

I was just found a tab on my phone with this CNN article:

CNN Exclusive: WHO Wuhan mission finds possible signs of wider original outbreak in 2019 - https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/14/health/who-mission-china-intl...

The investigators found evidence of 13 virus strains in Wuhan in December 2019:

> As a result, they were able to gather for the first time 13 different genetic sequences of the SARS-COV-2 virus from December 2019. The sequences, if examined with wider patient data in China across 2019, could provide valuable clues about the geography and timing of the outbreak before December.

> ...

> Prof. Edward Holmes, a virologist at the University of Sydney, in Australia, said: "As there was already genetic diversity in SARS-CoV-2 sequences sampled from Wuhan in December 2019, it is likely that the virus was circulating for a while longer than that month alone."

The point I'm trying to make here is that there's certainly a lot of facets of the pandemic that haven't been properly explained.