[3dee]

Aren't we too focused on PCR-test results? The article is talking about infections but most of the times this means positive results of PCR-tests.

A PCR-test only shows if you carry RNA of the virus. Not if you are sick of that virus, not if you are contagious.

The following scenario is true and happens often: Someone gets infected by Covid-19 but the body does break down the virus and the person does not get sick and was never contagious. A month later the same person is infected by the Rhino-virus and this time it is causing a cold. The person is tested and the PCR-test shows a positive result for covid-19. Which is true from a month earlier.

Since the article says that they estimate 50% of the population came in contact with the virus in Januari, it is to be expected that there are a lot positive tests. But the article is unclear about what this means for the healthcare system. Do a lot of people get sick, or is there just a lot of focus on positive tests?

As far as I know the only way to identify covid-19 with a PCR-test is a positive test and to know in wich order of symptoms occurred.

[midasuni]

Hospitals are overwhelmed. You can believe testing doesn’t work at all, but you need to explain why hospitals are so overloaded.

[midasuni]

The other thing to explain is why deaths with people testing positive for covid lag people testing positive for covid by 2 weeks.

If people tested positive because of say extra tests, and it was just a general factor, then surely those deaths would increase at the same time, not 2 weeks later.

The rough covid pattern for someone who dies of severe breathing difficulties while testing positive for covid seems to be globally:

T+7 test positive for covid

T+14 into hospital

T+21 death

[3dee]

True, but in most countries every year hospitals get overloaded around this time of year (2018 was also very bad world wide).

I believe testing works but only to see how many people came in contact with covid-19. It is not possible to tell how many people got sick from covid because the symptoms are the same.

I am not saying people don't get sick from covid. It's clear a new virus is going around the world. But it's a fact that we are unsure how many people really get sick from covid (alone).

And about the massive surge in India: my guess is that bad air quality in the big cities is not helping.

[kmonsen]

I don’t know much about India’s situation, but hospitals are overloaded everywhere. In the Bay Area everyone that wants it can get a vaccine tomorrow and we are about to fully reopen, but icu capacity is still pretty bad and full of Covid patients.

There is nowhere in the world that was prepared for this virus and had anywhere close to enough icu beds.

[isolli]

You are right, this is the correct counter-argument to oppose here. However, I wonder to what extent overwhelmed hospitals reflect relatively low hospital capacity, especially in crowded cities.

[midasuni]

Are they normally overwhelmed to this extent in April?

I’ve never heard of mention of it before when I’ve been in Delhi talking to locals at this time of year in the past, but open for figures like hospital occupancy etc.

[isolli]

I don't think they are. What I'm saying is that overwhelmed hospitals could be a less dramatic signal (or an earlier signal) of the epidemic taking off.

[collyw]

Where? They were overwhelmed, but coped for around 6 weeks around April 2020 here in Spain. Everything since then has been paranoia based on PCR test results.

[midasuni]

In Delhi where friends in the city tell me the hospitals are refusing new patients, with tapes people people turned away from 2 or 3 in a row.

[collyw]

Meanwhile thre were videos of the full hospitals in the UK being empty at the height of the second wave, while we were being told they were overwhelmed.

[Tzela]

The PCR-test is the best test we currently have to test the population in a useful and generally reliable way. While it is true that the test can remain positive after a few weeks after the infection or onset of symptoms, the percentage is close to 0 after about 6 weeks. [1] So as it's the end of April, the January infections will not have any false-positive influence on the current wave.

[1] https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/16/2249/5822175

[nyokodo]

> The person is tested and the PCR-test shows a positive result for covid-19. Which is true from a month earlier.

PCR tests detect viral DNA in a specimen. To have viral DNA in a specimen requires an active infection as DNA from dead viral particles doesn’t sit around for a month in the patient’s respiratory system. As the immune system responds and eliminates the infection repeated PCR tests will eventually show a negative result. Perhaps you’re thinking of antibody tests?

[3dee]

As far as I know it does not detect DNA but RNA. RNA degrades slowly and it is estimated it can take 1 to 3 months to be completely gone.

[nyokodo]

You are correct since they use RT-PCR specifically for SARS-CoV-2. However, the number of cycles used in the process is key, <= 24 cycles produces very few false positives for active infection. The OPs explanation for the increased rate doesn’t match this fact.

[hesarenu]

Bangalore 99% cases are [asymptotic](https://bangaloremirror.indiatimes.com/bangalore/others/94-4...). So most would not be sick but still spreading the virus around.

[patates]

How does the virus RNA survive that long in the body?

[3dee]

How I don't know. But it is estimated it can take 1 to 3 months before it is completely gone.